Andrew K. Rose:
Research
|
|
Dean and Distinguished Professor Bernard T. Rocca Jr.
Professor of International Business |
15 Kent Ridge Dr., Singapore 119245 University
of California, Berkeley |
National University of Singapore E-mail: bizdean@nus.edu.sg
Telephone:
510-642-6609 Facsimile:
510-642-4700 E-mail:
andrewkrose@berkeley.edu |
Last updated: Jan 12, 2020
Recent (unpublished) papers are available in reverse chronological order.
My research since 1995 is organized by topic.
Some pieces are easier to read.
The work I’m currently presenting (in conferences and seminars) is collected together.
What else is available at this website?
Check me out: links to my co-authors, research networks, affiliations, publishers, and rankings.
Research Organized by
Topic.
My
recent research can be
clustered into a few (sometimes overlapping)
areas (research is typically listed within area in reverse
chronological
order):
*
International Trade: Trade
Patterns; Sovereign Default; the
Multilateral (GATT/WTO) system
*
Currency Unions: Effects
on
Trade; Effects on Output and other Phenomena;
Optimum Currency Areas
*
Finance: International
Finance; Financial Asset Integration
*
Crises: Speculative
Exchange
Rate
Attacks; Contagion in
Currency Crises; Crises in Developing Countries
*
Macroeconomics: "Great Recession" of 2008-09; Unconventional Monetary Policy
*
Exchange Rates: Determination;
Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes
*
Size: Country
Effects
*
Miscellaneous, and comments
on
the
work
of
others
What Else is Available? From this page you can check out my record, find out about (and buy!) one of my books, and obtain research papers, data sets, output, presentations, press coverage, and more:
* @NBER:
I’m
a
Research
Associate
in
the
National
Bureau
of
Economic
Research
(NBER)
in
o
NBER
"yellow-jacket" working papers can be ordered from this
site at a nominal charge; they are widely available at academic and/or
policy
libraries.
* @CEPR:
I’m
a
Research
Fellow
of
the
Centre
for
Economic
Policy
Research
(CEPR)
in
o
CEPR
discussion papers can be ordered from this site, and are available
at academic and/or policy libraries.
* @GoogleScholar:
Citations
of
my papers (and the papers themselves) through Google
Scholar.
As
of May 2017, my Google citation count was over 40,000, my h-index
was
69 (I have 69 papers with at least 69 citations each), and my i10-index
was 147 (I have 147 papers with at least 10 citations each).
* @SSRN:
My
papers
in
the SSRN
Electronic Library. As of Feb 2019, I was ranked #66 out of 428,000 social scientists on SSRN.
* @SSCI: Citations
are
also
available
through
the
(more
reliable)
Web of Science/SSCI.
As May 2016, there were over
7100
SSCI
citations in economics for “Rose A*” (in the "Social Sciences" Research
Domain and "Business Economics" Research Area, without self-citations), and my
SSCI h-index was 43.
o As of December 2007 I was #58 of the most cited scientists in Economics and Business (Thomson).
* @IDEAS/RePec:
My personal
IDEAS/RePEc
page with downloadable
articles and journal links, access
statistics and citations.
o
I’m currently
(May 2016)
ranked #80 of over 47,000 economists; my current ranking.
* @VoxEU:
My
blog entries/research summaries at Vox.
* @ResearcherID: Papers as of May 2016 and citations (ditto).
* @EconPapers: Working
papers, Journal Articles, Books, Chapters and Access Statistics.
* @ResearchGate:
My publications.
* @SCOPUS:
Abstracts
and Citations for my papers.
* All my articles published by Elsevier Science journals (with PDF files and articles that cite mine).
*
Link
(or send
e-mail) to some of my recent co-authors,
including: George
Akerlof, Francis
Breedon, Eugenio Cerutti, Matthieu Chavaz, Stijn Claessens, Zsolt
Darvas, Barry
Eichengreen, Charles
Engel, Antonio
Fatás,
Rob
Feenstra,
Bob Flood,
Jeff Frankel, Davide Furceri,
Reuven
Glick, Swarnali Hannan, Ben Hermalin,
Takatoshi
Ito,
Olivier Jeanne, Anya Kleymenova, Jose Lopez, Jim
Markusen, Ilian Mihov, Don Moore,
Christoph Moser,
Jonathan Ostry, Thorarinn
Petursson,
Mark
Spiegel, T.D.
Stanley, Lars Svensson,
György
Szapáry, Tomasz
Wieladek, Eric
van
Wincoop, Charles
Wyplosz,
and Janet
Yellen.
*
International Finance and
Financial Crises
(edited
with
Peter Isard and Assaf Razin), Kluwer 2000.
*
Growth and Productivity in
East Asia (EASE
13, edited
with Takatoshi
Ito),
*
International Trade in East
Asia
(EASE 14,
edited
with Takatoshi
Ito),
*
Monetary Policy with very low
Inflation
in the Pacific Rim
(EASE 15,
edited
with Takatoshi
Ito), University of Chicago Press 2006.
*
Fiscal
Policy
and
Management
in
East
Asia
(EASE 16,
edited
with Takatoshi
Ito), University of Chicago Press 2007.
*
International
Financial
Issues
in
the
Pacific
Rim (EASE 17,
edited
with Takatoshi
Ito),
*
Financial
Sector
Development
in
East
Asia (EASE 18, edited
with Takatoshi
Ito),
*
Economic Consequences of
Demographic Change in East Asia (EASE 19, edited
with Takatoshi
Ito),
*
Commodity Prices and Markets (EASE 20, edited
with Takatoshi
Ito),
* A Pacific Rim Perspective on the Financial Crisis (EASE 21): conference website with papers.
* The Role of Government (EASE 22): conference website with papers.
* Employment and Growth (EASE 23): conference website with papers.
* Crises in the Open Economy (EASE 24): conference website with papers.
* Unconventional Monetary Policy (EASE 25): conference website with papers.
* Financial Stability (EASE 26): conference website with papers.
* Housing (EASE 27): conference website with papers.
* Inequality (EASE 28): conference website with papers.
* Political Economy (EASE 28): conference website with papers.
* International Trade (EASE 29): conference website with papers.
*
I
rarely own the copyright of published papers: it has been transferred
to the publisher
of the journal/book. I provide the files
below for individual use only. Please
obtain legal permission from the publisher for reproduction, if it is
necessary.
*
My
recent papers are available as PDFs (Adobe Acrobat Portable Document
Files), so they can be read on any platform and printed easily. (Since
my
papers are freely available on the web, I do not ordinarily mail
reprints.)
o
If you
do not have the Adobe Acrobat reader installed, it can be
obtained for free from the Adobe
web page.
*
Over 50
zipped data sets for my recent research are available below ("recent" is a relative term; I've been making my data and output accessible since at least 1990).
These are usually available as STATA data sets, but sometimes as Excel
worksheets, E-Views work files or in ASCII “dictionary” files
(with
variable descriptions in the headers). If you use my data sets, please acknowledge
this in print where appropriate. More
importantly, if you find an error in one of my data sets or
programs, please
let me know!
There are also some sample programs and much sample output (typically
covering the most important empirics; I try to comment so as to make
output self-explanatory).
o
Before complaining about a data set or requesting
something, please read this. Graduate Students and others: I
provide data
sets and sample output as a professional courtesy so that others can
replicate
my findings (I try to adhere to King's Replication Standard), not
(primarily) for the
convenience of others doing their own research. Please do not
abuse
my
courtesy (e.g., by asking me for something that you can obtain yourself
easily
enough, complaining about formatting, or asking for access to a data
set when I
haven’t posted the paper yet). Lots of
people think
my data sets are easily accessible.
1. I
usually do not respond
to
questions
that
can
be
answered
easily with
information
on
my
website.
Please try to look before you ask!
2. If
you
do
not
use
STATA (I now use version 14),
you can transfer
between different formats with Stat/Transfer. Details are available at the
Stat/Transfer
web site. Sorry, I don’t provide their software!
(And if you can’t handle ASCII
[dictionary]
files, I won’t be able to help).
3. If you do not have a
program to unzip files,
you’ll need one. One (among many) choice
is Winzip; you may obtain it from
their web
site. (And if you can’t handle zipped files, I won’t be able to
help you).
4. I provide my data sets in
their final
“massaged” format, not original source data, except in very special
circumstances. If you’re interested in
source
data, you’ll be able to find it … at the sources (always discussed in
my
papers). I try not to use data sets that are proprietary or confidential. Please do not ask
me to provide data sets that are easily accessible.
5. I don’t typically provide
codebooks, since
they’re embedded: variable descriptions are provided in the STATA data
sets and
in STATA dictionary files. Variable
descriptions and descriptive statistics are also typically provided in
each
output. I also often embed information
into STATA data sets with “notes.”
6. If you do have an issue
with a data set (or
whatever), please ensure I can understand it (e.g., mention which
project and
please be specific with e.g., URLs). I
don’t promise to respond to frivolous or unclear e-mail about data sets.
7. I
provide output rather than raw program code. The code is embedded
within output and clearly visible; I do this so that the skeptical can
easily see actual results (useful for replication) as well as the code
generating it. (It also makes it much easier for me to check
estimates myself.) Feel free to use the embedded code if you
like, but remember that it's then yours. Please don't ask me for
code (or anything else) simply to make your own research easier; that's
not the reason I provide materials.
8. All my recent research that is publicly available is … publicly available here. Please don’t ask me for something that isn’t here unless you’re either a friend or very important; I almost surely won’t be able to help you. Graduate students and others: output files have program code embedded within. Occasionally a co-author asks me not to post a data set; in such circumstances, please just ask the co-author. And ... to repeat ... please do look before you ask me for something already posted.
9. Most states have statutes of limitations that are a decade or less; it's unlikely you'll get help for a very old project.
10. If you're interested in how I work with data, here are some of my guidelines.
*
I
sometimes also provide: press coverage; overhead slides (as PDF
files); presentations (as PowerPoint files); original programs; links
and/or
responses to my critics; and so forth.
Recent Unpublished Papers, in Reverse Chronological Order: | Top | Home | Topics
*
“The Macroeconomy After Tariffs"
(with Davide Furceri, Swarnali Hannan, and Jonathan Ostry). The line: tariffs are bad news; they lower output and productivity, raise unemployment and inequality, appreciate the exchange rate and have little effect on the trade balance. Current version. Earlier versions appear as CEPR DP 13,389. NBER WP 25,042. Data set, basic program and output. PowerPoint presentation.
Coverage by Livemint, Economist
*
“Why Have Negative Nominal Interest Rates Had Such a Small Effect on Bank Performance? Cross Country Evidence"
(wiith Jose Lopez and Mark Spiegel). The line: negative interest rates havn't hurt bank profits. Current version. CEPR DP 13,010. NBER WP 25,004. Key output. Shorter Powerpoint presentation. Longer Powerpoint presentation. The data set cannot be posted (it's confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I'll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn't reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time).
Commentary by Cechetti and Schoenholtz.
*
“Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports"
The line: quantitative easing and/or negative interest rates don't lead to export booms. Forthcoming, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. Current version. Online appendices. NBER WP 24,817. An early version appeared as CEPR DP 11,748. Powerpoint presentation. Key output. Data.
Less Technical Papers that are Easier to Read: | Top | New | Home | Topics
* Macro Reasons to Loath Protectionism (with Furceri, Hannand and Ostry, from Vox)
* Bank Performance under Negative Interest Rates (with Lopez and Spiegel, from Vox)
* The Economic Cost of Repellent Leadership: Losing Soft Power Lowers Exports (from Vox)
* The Global Financial Cycle: Closer to an Anticlimax than a Juggernaut (from Vox)
* Political Borders and Bank Lending in Post-Crisis America (with Chavaz, Cato Research Brief in Economic Policy 67)
* Does Exchange Rate Behavior Change when Interest Rates are Negative? (with Hameed, from Vox)
* Why Estimates of the Trade Effects of the Eurozone vary so much (from Vox)
* Do Local Bond Markets Help Fight Inflation? (with Spiegel, FRBSF Economic Letter)
* Government Intervention Reduces Banking Globalization (with Kleymenova and Wieladek, from Vox)
* How Much Does the EMU Benefit Trade? (with Glick, FRBSF Economic Letter)
* Soft Power Raises Exports (from Vox)
* The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Redux (from Vox)
* Bond Markets Help Lower Inflation (from Vox)
* Capital Controls in the 21st Century (from Vox)
* NBER Digest: Protectionism isn't Countercyclical (anymore)
* Protectionism isn't Countercyclical (anymore) (from Vox)
* Why do Trade Negotiations Take so Long?
* To Agree or Not to Agree on Regional Trade? Hiring the Stock Market as an Advisor (also available in German)
* Do Mega Sporting Events Promote international Trade?
* How will the New Exchange Rate Regime affect the Chinese Economy? (from Vox)
* What do We Know about the Causes of the Crisis? (from Vox)
* Searching for International Contagion in the 2008 Financial Crisis (from Vox)
* “The International Economic
Order in the Aftermath of the 'Great Recession:' A Cautious Case of
Optimism”
A draft is available as a PDF file.
* Predicting Crises: Did Anything Matter (to Everybody)? (from FRBSF Economic Letter)
* Could an Early Warning System Have Predicted the Crisis? (from Vox)
* Debunking "Decoupling" (from Vox)
* Why bid for the Olympic Games? (from Vox)
* Why have Currency Unions Dissolved? A Test of Optimum Currency Area Theory (from Vox)
* Economic Spillovers from International Environmental Cooperation (from Vox)
*
Are
International Financial Crises a Relic of the Past? Inflation
Targeting as a Monetary Vaccine
(from
Vox)
*
Recent
Views on
Trade Patterns and Trade Policy
(from The New
Republic)
*
U.S.
Consulates
Raise
Exports
*
Macroeconomic Determinants of
International Trade
*
Does the World Trade Organization Actually
Promote World
Trade? (the
view
of
The Economist, a reprise
from The
Economist, and the view of Libération)
*
Do Currency
Unions Increase Trade? (two
views
from The
Economist
and their
view
of
the
Baldwin
critique)
*
EMU and Swedish Trade (disputed
by
various
Swedes)
*
EMU’s Potential Effect on British Trade: A
Quantitative
Assessment (disputed by many Brits)
*
The Empirics of Currency and Banking Crises
*
Limiting Currency Crises and Contagion: Is
there a Case
for an Asian Monetary Fund?
*
Dynamic Measures of Competitiveness: Are the
Geese Still
Flying in Formation?
International Trade Patterns: | Top
| New | Home | Topics
*
“Soft Power and Exports"
The line: since soft power helps exports, unpopular leaders like Trump lower exports of their countries. Current version. Review of International Economics 2019. Earlier versions circulate as CEPR DP 13,139. NBER WP 25,439. Data set. Key output. Powerpoint Presentation.
*
“Soft Power, Sanctions and Exports: Checking the BS in BDS"
The line: even if the S in BDS is BS, the B is not. In Research Handbook on Economic Diplomacy (van Bergeijk and Moon, eds; Edward Elgar 2018). Current version (PDF). Key output; STATA data set.
*
“Like Me, Buy Me: The Effect of Soft Power on Exports"
The line: countries that are seen to be a force for good by others, export more. Economics and Politics, 2016. Current version (PDF). CEPR DP 10,713. NBER WP 21537. Key output; STATA data set.
*
“Who Benefits
from Regional Trade Agreements? The View from the Stock Market"
(with Christoph Moser) The line: stock markets rise for RTAs between countries that already export a lot, and for poor countries. European Economic Review, 2014. A draft is available as a PDF file. NBER WP 17415. CEPR DP 8566. Key output and data for final version. Online appendix. Slides for a presentation.
*
“Protectionism
Isn't Counter-Cyclic (anymore)"
The line: barriers to trade like tariffs and quotas don't change much over the business cycle. Economic Policy 2013. NBER WP 18062. CEPR DP 8937. Curent version, available as a PDF file; the original draft is also available. Powerpoint slides are available. Current draft: key output; STATA data sets; Figures. Original draft: key output; STATA data sets.
*
“Why do Trade
Negotiations Take So Long?"
(with Christoph Moser). The line: regional trade agreement negotiations are shorter if the countries are closer, richer, more open and fewer. Journal of Economic Integration, and Edward Elgar in European Integration in a Global Economic Setting – CESEE and the Impact of China and Russia (edited by Nowotny, E., Mooslechner, P., and Ritzberger-Grünwald, D.) CEPR DP 8993. A draft is available Key output is available.
*
“The Olympic
Effect”
(with Mark Spiegel). The line: countries that try to host mega-events may really be trying to signal trade liberalization. Economic Journal 2011. The original version is available as a PDF file, as is a revision, both longer and shorter versions of a second revision, and a set of overhead slides. Sample output is available for the original paper and the revision. The key STATA data sets are available. CEPR DP7248; NBER WP 14,854. NPR Coverage.
- In the press/blogosphere at: Vox; New York Times Freakonomics; Wall Street Journal; Marginal Revolution; Pravda; Guardian; Chicago Magazine; The Atlantic.
- If you're interested in this area, there's a challenge by Maennig and Richter, and another by Rishav Bista .
*
“The
Effect of
Membership in the GATT/WTO on Trade: Where Do We Stand?”
The line: I review the
evidence on the trade effects of WTO membership. In
Is
the World Trade Organization Attractive Enough for
Emerging Economies? (edited by Zdenek
Drabek). A draft is
available as a PDF file as is a
marginally different version for the Handbook of
Economic Integration (edited by
*
“The
Foreign Service
and Foreign Trade: Embassies as Export Promotion”
The
line: embassies and consulates have a small positive effect on exports. The
World
Economy 2007. NBER WP 11111. CEPR DP 4953. A draft is
available
as a PDF file, as is a
revision. The
zipped data
set is available (along with the underlying data sets, usually in Excel
spreadsheets). Key STATA
output
is available for the original draft, and
for the
revision. The paper is
summarized in
the August 2005 NBER Digest. Forbes covered this in 9/2005 (easy
to read).
Corriere
della
Sera covered this in
9/2005 (easy
to read
… if you speak Italian). Overhead
transparencies are available as a PDF file.
*
“Macroeconomic Determinants
of International
Trade”
The line: I survey my work on trade, currency unions, the WTO, and sovereign debt. NBER Reporter, Fall 2004. A draft is available as a PDF file.
*
“Does
the WTO Make
Trade More Stable?”
The line: membership in the GATT/WTO has no effect on trade volatility. Open Economies Review 2005. NBER WP 10207. CEPR DP 4246. MAS OP 27. The original draft is available as a PDF file, as is a revision. The zipped bilateral and multilateral data sets are available in STATA 8 format. Sample output is available in a zipped file. Output and data specific to the revision are available in a zipped file.
*
“Which
International Institutions Promote International Trade?”
The line: the OECD works better (and the IMF and GATT/WTO worse) then you might think in promoting trade. Review of International Economics 2005. CEPR DP 3764. A draft is available as a PDF file, as is a revised version. The bilateral data set is available in zipped STATA 7.0 format (35MB). Note that there is a (small) error in the data set. Supporting zipped output is available as are a few checks mentioned in the revision.
*
“Do
We Really Know
that the WTO increases Trade?”
The
line: countries in the GATT/WTO don’t trade much more than non-members. American
Economic
Review 2004. NBER
WP
9273. CEPR DP
3538. HKIMR
WP
18/2002.
MAS
Occasional
Paper No. 24. RSC No. 2003/15
(EUI). A fuller draft
is
available as a PDF file, as is a
shortened version. This was summarized
in the
May 2003 NBER Digest. Supporting
output. The bilateral data set is
available in zipped
STATA
7.0
format (35MB). Note that there is a
(small) error
in the data set. The Penn World Table mark 6 is
available
elsewhere. Overheads are
available as a PDF file and the PowerPoint
show is
also available. I sometimes refer to
the actual GATT; here
are some
GATT articles of interest. There’s
been coverage on BBC
TV and radio, in the Financial
Times
(there’s a response in the FT from the WTO’s chief economist
on Nov 14,
2002 and other responses on Nov 20 and Nov 21), the Economist
(here’s
an
easy
version
to
print), a reprise from The
Economist (easier
to print), Bloomberg,
Libération,
Foreign
Policy,
and the Financial
Post (here’s
an
easier
version
to
print). If you’re
into non-sequiturs, check out The
Road to
Surfdom. I’ve been called
“irreverent and contrarian” in front of the
House
Ways
and
Means
committee (goodness me!).
The
CEPR has a press release. My son is
thanked;
here’s why.
1.
“Exploring
the
Intensive
and
Extensive
Margins
of
World
Trade” by Felbermayr
and Kohler,
2.
“A Very
Exclusive Club:
The Effects of GATT, 1950-92” by Gowa
and Kim,
3.
“WTO
and Growth” by Li
and Wu,
4.
“GATT/WTO
Promotes
Trade
Strongly:
Sample
Selection
and
Model
Specification”
by
Liu,
5.
“Russia
and the WTO: The ‘Gravity’ of Outsider Status” by Lissovolik and
Lissovolik, and
6.
“How
Important
is
State
Enforcement
for
Trade?” by Leeson.
7.
“Trading
Partners and Trading Volumes” by Helpman,
Melitz
and Rubinstein.
8.
“Demystifying
Modelling
Methods
for
Trade
Policy” by Piermartini
and Teh.
9.
“Joining
the World Trade Organization: It’s All About the Exports” by Christopher Balding.
10.
“What
is
Known
about
the
Effects
of
WTO
Accession
on
Developing
Countries?”
by
Evenett
11.
“On
the Emergence of
an MFN
Club” by Saggi and Sengul
12.
“Do
the
WTO
and
the
GSP
foster
bilateral
trade? by Herz and Wagner
13. “The WTO Trade Effect” by Chang and Lee.
14. “The Impact of the GATT/WTO on Trade: Formal Members vs. Non-member Participants” by Liu.
15. “In Search of WTO Trade Effects” by Eicher and Hennn.
16. “Corruption and Bilateral Trade Flows” by Dutt and Traca.
17. “Properly Measuring the Impact of Multilateral Institutions on World Trade" by Kim. My response is available as a PDF file.
18. “WTO Membership and the Extensive Margin of World Trade" by Felbermayr and Kohler.
19. “Is the WTO Mystery Really Solved?" by Jayjit Roy.
20. “Agriculture and the WTO" by Boys and Grant.
21.
“Does WTO
Matter for the Extensive and the Intensive Margins of Trade" by
Dutt, Mihov and Van Zandt.
22.
“Does the GATT/WTO
Promote Trade? After All,Rose was Right" by
Esteve-Perez,Gil-Pareja, and Llorca-Vivero.
*
“Is
Trade Good or Bad
for the Environment? Sorting out the
Causality”
(with
Jeffrey
Frankel) The line: trade isn’t bad for
the
environment. The
Review
of
Economics
and
Statistics
2005.
NBER WP
9201. The full version
is available
as a PDF file as is a much more user-friendly
short
version. The Stata
data set is
available, as is key output. Reviewed in NBER
Digest,
November 2002.
*
“Using
the Gravity
Model to Differentiate Among Alternative Theories of Trade”
(with Robert Feenstra and James Markusen) The line: there’s more to gravity than you think. NBER WP #6804, CEPR DP No. 2035, Canadian Journal of Economics 2001 (available to CJE subscribers). A draft is available as a PDF file as is a revision of the paper. The STATA bilateral export data set is available as is sample output (which covers Table 2). Note that there was a (small) error in the original data set.
*
“Putting
Things
in
Order:
Trade
Dynamics
and
Product
Cycles”
(with Robert Feenstra) The line: countries and goods can be ordered by export timing. Review of Economics and Statistics 2000, NBER WP 5975, CEPR DP 1629. Available as a PDF File. The raw data is available in a STATA data set. Country rankings are also available in a STATA data set. Baseline goods’ rankings are available as a STATA dictionary (ASCII).
*
“Dynamic
Measures
of
Competitiveness:
Are
the
Geese
Still
Flying
in
Formation?”
The
line: Asians export in an order. Federal
Reserve Bank
of San Francisco Economic Letter 1997. Available
as
a
PDF
File.
The Multilateral (GATT/WTO) System and Trade: | Top | New | Home | Topics
*
“The
Effect of
Membership in the GATT/WTO on Trade: Where Do We Stand?”
The line: I review the
evidence on the trade effects of WTO membership. In
Is the
World
Trade
Organization
Attractive
Enough
for
Emerging
Economies? (edited
by Zdenek
Drabek). A draft is
available as a PDF file as is a
marginally different version intended for the Handbook of
Economic Integration (edited by
*
“Macroeconomic
Determinants
of
International
Trade”
The line: I survey my work on trade, currency unions, the WTO, and sovereign debt. NBER Reporter, Fall 2004. A draft is available as a PDF file.
*
“Does
the WTO Make
Trade More Stable?”
The line: membership in the GATT/WTO has no effect on trade volatility. Open Economies Review 2005. NBER WP 10207. CEPR DP 4246. MAS OP 27. The original draft is available as a PDF file, as is a revision. The zipped bilateral and multilateral data sets are available in STATA 8 format. Sample output is available in a zipped file. Output and data specific to the revision are available in a zipped file.
*
Notes
on the
Effects of WTO Membership on FDI and Services
The line: countries in the GATT/WTO don’t have more FDI flows or trade in services. A short memo is available as a PDF file or in html.
*
“Which
International Institutions Promote International Trade?”
The line: the OECD works better (and the IMF and GATT/WTO worse) then you might think in promoting trade. Review of International Economics 2005. CEPR DP 3764. A draft is available as a PDF file, as is a revised version. The bilateral data set is available in zipped STATA 7.0 format (35MB). Note that there is a (small) error in the data set. Supporting zipped output is available as are a few checks mentioned in the revision.
*
“Do
WTO Members
have More Liberal Trade Policy?”
The
line: countries in the GATT/WTO don’t have more liberal trade policy. Journal
of
International
Economics
2004. NBER
WP 9347. CEPR DP
3659. A draft of the
paper is
available as a PDF file as is a revised
version. This was summarized in the May 2003 NBER
Digest.
Tables
are
available
as
a
PDF
file. The data set is available in 3
formats: a)
zipped STATA 7.0 format; b) zipped ASCII
(Stata dictionary
file); c)
zipped ASCII
(State outsheet
format;
spreadsheet-style). Supporting
output
is available in zipped ASCII files as is supplemental
material
(output
and
a
graphic)
added
later.
1.
“A Very
Exclusive Club:
The Effects of GATT, 1950-92” by Gowa
and Kim,
2.
“What
is
Known
about
the
Effects
of
WTO
Accession
on
Developing
Countries?”
by
Evenett
3.
“On
the Emergence of
an MFN Club” by Saggi and
Sengul
*
“Do
We Really Know
that the WTO increases Trade?”
The line:
countries in the GATT/WTO don’t trade much more than non-members. American
Economic
Review 2004. NBER
WP
9273. CEPR DP
3538. HKIMR
WP
18/2002.
MAS
Occasional
Paper No. 24. RSC No. 2003/15
(EUI). A fuller draft
is
available as a PDF file, as is a
shortened version. This was summarized
in the
May 2003 NBER Digest. Supporting
output. The bilateral data set is
available in zipped
STATA
7.0
format (35MB). Note that there is a
(small) error
in the data set. The Penn World Table mark 6 is
available
elsewhere. Overheads are
available as a PDF file and the PowerPoint
show is
also available. I sometimes refer to
the actual GATT; here
are some
GATT articles of interest. There’s
been coverage on BBC
TV and radio, in the Financial
Times
(there’s a response in the FT from the WTO’s chief economist
on Nov 14,
2002 and other responses on Nov 20 and Nov 21), the Economist
(here’s
an
easy
version
to
print), a reprise from The
Economist (easier
to print), Bloomberg,
Libération,
Foreign
Policy,
and the Financial
Post (here’s
an
easier
version
to
print). If you’re
into non-sequiturs, check out The
Road to
Surfdom. I’ve been called
“irreverent
and contrarian” in front of the
House
Ways
and
Means
committee (goodness me!).
The
CEPR has a press release. My son is
thanked;
here’s why.
1.
“Exploring
the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade” by Felbermayr
and Kohler,
2.
“A Very Exclusive
Club:
The Effects of GATT, 1950-92” by Gowa
and Kim,
3.
“WTO
and Growth” by Li
and Wu,
4.
“GATT/WTO
Promotes
Trade
Strongly:
Sample
Selection
and
Model
Specification”
by
Liu,
5.
“Russia
and the WTO: The ‘Gravity’ of Outsider Status” by Lissovolik and
Lissovolik, and
6.
“How
Important is State Enforcement for Trade?” by Leeson.
7.
“Trading
Partners and Trading Volumes” by Helpman,
Melitz
and Rubinstein.
8.
“Demystifying
Modelling Methods for Trade Policy” by Piermartini and Teh.
9.
“Joining
the
World Trade Organization: It’s All About the Exports” by Christopher Balding.
10.
“What is
Known about the Effects of WTO Accession on Developing Countries?”
by
Evenett
11.
“On the Emergence of
an MFN
Club” by Saggi and Sengul
12.
“Do
the WTO and the GSP foster bilateral trade? by Herz and Wagner
13. “The WTO Trade Effect” by Chang and Lee.
14. “The Impact of the GATT/WTO on Trade: Formal Members vs. Non-member Participants” by Liu.
15. “In Search of WTO Trade Effects” by Eicher and Hennn.
16. “Corruption and Bilateral Trade Flows” by Dutt and Traca.
17. “Properly Measuring the Impact of Multilateral Institutions on World Trade" by Kim. My response is available as a PDF file.
18. “WTO Membership and the Extensive Margin of World Trade" by Felbermayr and Kohler,
19. “Is the WTO Mystery Really Solved?" by Jayjit Roy.
20.
“Agriculture
and
the
WTO" by Boys and Grant.
21. “Does WTO Matter for the Extensive and the Intensive Margins of Trade" by Dutt, Mihov and Van Zandt.
22.
“Does the GATT/WTO
Promote Trade? After All,Rose was Right" by
Esteve-Perez,Gil-Pareja, and Llorca-Vivero.
Sovereign
Default and Trade: |
Top
| New | Home | Topics
*
“Non-Economic
Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental
Treaties”
(with Mark Spiegel). The line: joining international environmental treaties has economic benefits. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2009. NBER WP 13,988. CEPR DP 5942. A new draft is available as a PDF file, as is an older draft. Overhead slides are available as a PDF file. A user-friendly executive summary is available from Vox. A ZIP file containing relevant data is available as is output. A related paper "International Environmental Arrangements and International Commerce" is in Steven Brakman and Peter A. G. van Bergeijk, eds., Recent Applications of the Gravity Model, (Cambridge University Press).
*
“Macroeconomic
Determinants
of
International
Trade”
The line: I survey my work on trade, currency unions, the WTO, and sovereign debt. NBER Reporter, Fall 2004. A draft is available as a PDF file.
*
“A
Gravity Model
of Sovereign Lending: Trade, Default, and Credit”
(with
Mark
Spiegel). The line: international
loans follow trade
patterns. IMF
Staff
Papers
2004. NBER
WP
9285. CEPR DP
3539. A
current
version
is
available
as
a
PDF
file (here are the
derivations). Overhead
slides for
transparencies are available as a PDF file, and there’s
also a
PowerPoint presentation. Supporting
output.
The data set is available in zipped STATA
7.0
format.
*
“One
Reason
Countries Pay their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade”
The line: sovereign default is followed by shrinking trade. One of JDE's top-10 cited papers during 2005-09. Journal of Development Economics 2005. FRBNY Staff Report No 142, CEPR DP 3157, HKIMR WP 4/2002, NBER WP 8853. A longer draft is available as a PDF file, as is a more condensed version. The data set is available in STATA 7.0 format. Details on Paris Club renegotiations are available as an Excel spreadsheet. Sample output covering Table 1 (including descriptive statistics from Appendix 2) and the new Table 4c is available. Overhead transparencies are available as a PDF file.
Trade
and
the
Environment:
| Top
| New | Home | Topics
*
“Non-Economic
Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental
Treaties”
(with Mark Spiegel). The line: joining international environmental treaties has economic benefits. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2009. NBER WP 13,988. CEPR DP 5942. A new draft is available as a PDF file, as is an older draft. Overhead slides are available as a PDF file. A user-friendly executive summary is available from Vox. A ZIP file containing relevant data is available as is output. A related paper "International Environmental Arrangements and International Commerce" is in Steven Brakman and Peter A. G. van Bergeijk, eds., Recent Applications of the Gravity Model, (Cambridge University Press).
*
“Is
Trade Good or Bad
for the Environment? Sorting out the
Causality”
(with
Jeffrey
Frankel) The line: trade isn’t bad for
the
environment.
The
Review
of Economics and Statistics 2005.
NBER WP 9201.
The full version
is available
as a PDF file as is a much more user-friendly
short
version.
The Stata
data set is
available, as is key output.
Reviewed in NBER
Digest,
November 2002.
Protectionism:
| Top
| New | Home | Topics
* “The Macroeconomy After Tariffs"
(with Davide Furceri, Swarnali Hannan, and Jonathan Ostry). The
line: tariffs are bad news; they lower output and productivity, raise
unemployment and inequality, appreciate the exchange rate and have
little effect on the trade balance. Current version. Earlier versions appear as CEPR DP 13,389. NBER WP 25,042. Data set, basic program and output. PowerPoint presentation.
Coverage by Livemint, Economist
*
“Who Benefits
from Regional Trade Agreements? The View from the Stock Market"
(with Christoph Moser) The line: stock markets rise for RTAs between countries that already export a lot, and for poor countries. European Economic Review, 2014. A draft is available as a PDF file. NBER WP 17415. CEPR DP 8566. Key output and data for final version. Online appendix. Slides for a presentation.
*
“Protectionism
Isn't Counter-Cyclic (anymore)"
The line: barriers to trade like tariffs and quotas don't change much over the business cycle. Economic Policy 2013. NBER WP 18062. CEPR DP 8937. Curent version, available as a PDF file; the original draft is also available. Powerpoint slides are available. Current draft: key output; STATA data sets; Figures. Original draft: key output; STATA data sets.
*
“Why do Trade
Negotiations Take So Long?"
(with Christoph Moser). The line: regional trade agreement negotiations are shorter if the countries are closer, richer, more open and fewer. Journal of Economic Integration, and Edward Elgar in European Integration in a Global Economic Setting – CESEE and the Impact of China and Russia (edited by Nowotny, E., Mooslechner, P., and Ritzberger-Grünwald, D.) CEPR DP 8993. A draft is available Key output is available.
*
“Financial
Protectionism? First Evidence"
(with Tomasz Wieladek) The line: after non-British banks are nationalized, they contract their British lending and raise interest rates; first evidence of financial protectionism. A newly revised draft is available as a PDF file, as is an earlier revision. Journal of Finance, 2014. (here's the version in their style). NBER WP 17073 (from NBER). CEPR DP 8404 (from CEPR). Bank of England External MPC DP 32 (from Bank of England). A non-technical version is available from VOXEU. Overhead slides are available for a presentation. A web-only appendix is available. Comparison with Ait-Sahalia et al. Key output is available. The data set cannot be posted (it's confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I'll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn't reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time).
International Finance:
| Top
| New | Home | Topics
*
“How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows"
(with Eugenio Cerutti and Stijn Claessens) The line: the global financial cycle explains little variation in capital flows. International Monetary Fund Economic Review 2019. Current shorter version (for publication, without all appendices). Current longer version. NBER WP 23,699. CEPR DP 12,075. BIS WP 661. IMF WP 17/193. Key output. Data. Long PowerPoint presentation for seminars. NBER presentation. Short PowerPoint presentation for conferences. Coverage in Financial Times.
*
“Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports"
The line: quantitative easing and/or negative interest rates don't lead to export booms. Forthcoming, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. Current version. Online appendices. NBER WP 24,817. An early version appeared as CEPR DP 11,748. Powerpoint presentation. Key output. Data.
*
“Exchange Rate Behavior with Negative Interest Rates: Some Early Negative Observations"
(with Allaudeen Hameed) The
line: negative nominal interest rates haven't affected exchange rate behavior. Current version; shorter version. Key output; data. Powerpoint presentation. CEPR DP 11,498, Pacific Economic Review 2018.
*
“Does Government Intervention Affect Banking Globalization?"
(with Anya Kleymenova and Tomasz Wieladek). The line: Yes! There's more evidence of financial protectionism during the global financial crisis. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2016. Current version (PDF). Key output. Powerpoint presentation. CEPR DP 11,108. NBER WP 21,981.
*
“Capital Controls in the 21st Century"
*
“Financial
Protectionism? First Evidence"
(with Tomasz Wieladek) The line: after non-British banks are nationalized, they contract their British lending and raise interest rates; first evidence of financial protectionism. A newly revised draft is available as a PDF file, as is an earlier revision. Journal of Finance, 2014 (here's the version in their style). NBER WP 17073 (from NBER). CEPR DP 8404 (from CEPR). Bank of England External MPC DP 32 (from Bank of England). A non-technical version is available from VOXEU. Overhead slides are available for a presentation. A web-only appendix is available. Comparison with Ait-Sahalia et al. Key output is available. The data set cannot be posted (it's confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I'll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn't reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time).
*
“Central Bank
Swaps and International Dollar Illiquidity"
(with Mark Spiegel). The line: it's easy in theory to explain why the dollar appreciated during the 2008 financial crisis. Global Journal of Economics. A draft is available as a PDF file.
*
“The Causes
and
Consequences of the
2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure”
(with Mark Spiegel). The line: countries with greater trade and financial exposure to the United States had smaller crises in 2008. Pacific Economic Review, 2010 (best paper award winner). A draft is available as a PDF file. NBER WP 15358. CEPR Discussion Paper 7466. A PowerPoint presentation is available. The STATA-10 data set. Key output.
*
“The Causes
and
Consequences of the
2008 Crisis: Early Warning”
(with Mark Spiegel). The line: it's easier to figure out which countries were affected by the 2008 financial crisis than why. Japan and the World Economy, 2012. NBER WP 15357. CEPR Discussion Paper 7354. A draft is available as a PDF file. A simpler version is available (from Vox)/ A PowerPoint presentation is available. The STATA-10 data set. Key output.
*
“Non-Economic
Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental
Treaties”
(with Mark Spiegel). The line: joining international environmental treaties has economic benefits. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2009. NBER WP 13,988. CEPR DP 5942. A new draft is available as a PDF file, as is an older draft. Overhead slides are available as a PDF file. A user-friendly executive summary is available from Vox. A ZIP file containing relevant data is available as is output.
*
“Forecasting
International
Financial
Prices
with
Fundamentals:
How
do
Stocks
and
Exchange
Rates
Compare?"
(with Robert Flood). The line: stock markets are just as difficult to forecast as exchange rates, even with future “fundamentals.” In Globalization and Economic Integration (Gaston and Khalid editors, Edward Elgar 2010). An earlier version circulated as "Why So Glum? The Meese-Rogoff Methodology Meets the Stock Market" CEPR DP 6714. A draft is available as a PDF file, as are overhead slides. The STATA data set is available as is key output.
* “International Financial Remoteness and Macroeconomic Volatility”
(with Mark Spiegel). The line: the further a country is from financial activity, the more volatile its business cycle. Journal of Development Economics, 2009. NBER WP 14,336. A current version of the paper is available as a PDF file, as are earlier long and short versions, and overhead slides. The STATA data set is available as is key output.
* “A Stable International Monetary System Emerges: Bretton Woods, Reversed”
The line: Bretton Woods may or may not have been revived; it’s certainly been reversed. Journal of International Money and Finance 2007. NBER WP 12,711. CEPR DP 5854. A draft is available as a PDF file. The data sets are available as is key output. Overhead slides are available as a PDF file. Slides for a presentation at the Italian Senate are available as a PDF file. International Herald Tribune coverage, Nov 28 2006 (PDF). Indian Express coverage, Jan 27 2007 (PDF).
- A more informal version that is easier to read is available as a PDF file and from Vox.
*
“Offshore
Financial
Centers:
Parasites
or
Symbionts?”
(with Mark Spiegel). The line: offshore financial centers are good for domestic bank competition, even if they encourage tax evasion and money laundering. Economic Journal 2007. NBER WP 12044. CEPR DP 5081. A draft of the original version of the paper is available as a PDF file, as is a revision. The zipped Stata data set is available (along with many of the underlying data sets, usually in Excel spreadsheets). Key output for the original is available in a zipped file, as is a set of output files for the revision. Overhead slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file. Economist coverage available (as a PDF file). A press release is available as a PDF file.
* “Equity Integration in Times of Crisis”
(with Robert P. Flood). The line: financial crises can affect the integration of stock markets. In Market Discipline. A short draft is available as a PDF file, as is a longer working paper version (easier to read, more results). The zipped data sets are available in Excel, E-Views 4 and STATA 8 formats (2.1 MB). The E-Views programs and sample output are available in a zipped file. Overheads for a talk are available as a PDF file.
*
“Equity
Integration
in
The
line: the
* “A New Approach to Asset Integration”
(with Robert P. Flood). The line: asset markets aren’t very integrated. Forthcoming in Contemporary Issues in International Finance. A preliminary draft is available as a PDF file. The zipped data sets are available in E-Views 4, STATA 8, and ASCII (“outsheet”) formats in a large (5 MB) zipped file. A large (5 MB) zipped Excel spreadsheet with the raw and massaged equity data is available. A zipped set of Stata7 “small multiple” time-series plots of the series are available for the neurotic. A zipped set of 10 E-Views 4 programs which produce key (all?) results in the paper is available, along with corresponding output. Here’s a STATA version (with output) and the E-Views program (and output) it replicates, along with some starting value sensitivity analysis. Overhead slides for presentations are available as a PDF file.
*
“A
Gravity Model
of Sovereign Lending: Trade, Default, and Credit”
(with
Mark
Spiegel). The line: international
loans follow trade patterns. IMF
Staff
Papers
2004. NBER
WP 9285. CEPR DP
3539. A
current
version
is
available
as
a
PDF
file (here are the
derivations). Overhead
slides for
transparencies are available as a PDF file, and there’s
also a
PowerPoint presentation. Supporting
output.
The data set is available in zipped STATA
7.0
format.
*
“Uncovered
Interest
Parity
in
Crisis:
The
Interest
Rate
Defense
in
the
1990s”
The line: UIP still works badly. (with Robert Flood), presented at Assaf Razin’s festschrift in Tel Aviv, March 2001. CEPR DP 2943, , and IMF WP/01/207. A draft is available as a PDF file. A shorter version that focuses exclusively on UIP is also available; it is published in IMF Staff Papers 2002. A version is also in Economic Policy in the International Economy (Helpman and Sadka, eds, Cambridge Press, 2003). The data set is available as a STATA (ASCII) dictionary file. The pooled data set is also available as a STATA data set. The data sources are described more fully in a PDF file. Sample output for UIP tests is available.
*
“Noise
Trading and
Exchange Rate Regimes”
(with
Olivier Jeanne) The line: noise
traders
make fixed exchange rates seem reasonable. CEPR
DP 2142 NBER WP 7104
RBNZ G99/2, Quarterly
Journal
of
Economics 2002. A draft is
available as
a PDF File. The
E-Views (interest and exchange rate) and STATA (macroeconomic) data
sets used
in the original working paper are available, as are the data
sets (in
ASCII, Excel and STATA formats) used in the revision.
Sample
output
(corresponding
to
Table
1)
is
available.
*
“Fixes:
Of
the
Forward
Discount
Puzzle”
(with Robert Flood) The line: we estimate the peso puzzle. Review of Economics and Statistics 1996 NBER WP 4928 Available as a PDF File. The STATA data set.
*
“Fixing
Exchange
Rates:
A
Virtual
Quest
for
Fundamentals”
(with
Robert Flood) The
line:
macro
fundamentals
don’t
vary
across
exchange
rate
regimes,
but
exchange
rates
do.
The
Journal of
Monetary
Economics 1995, NBER WP 4503 Available as a
PDF File.
Financial Asset Integration: | Top | New | Home | Topics
*
“Capital Controls in the 21st Century"
*
“The
Expected
Marginal Rate of Substitution in the
The line: the TSE and the NYSE stock markets don’t seem very integrated. In Canada in the Global Economy 2004. A draft is available as a PDF file, Overhead slides are available as a PDF file. The zipped data sets are available in STATA 8 format (4.3 MB). Sample output is available in a zipped file.
* “Estimating the Expected Marginal Rate of Substitution: A Systematic Exploitation of Idiosyncratic Risk”
(with
Robert P. Flood).
The line: stock markets don’t seem very
integrated. Journal
of
Monetary
Economics
2005.
Earlier versions are available
as NBER WP 10805. CEPR DP
4684. The original
version
is available as a PDF file, as is a dramatic
revision. Overhead
slides
are available as a PDF file. The
zipped data
sets are available in STATA 8 format (4.3 MB).
Sample
output
is
available
in
a
zipped
file; here
are some
(monthly, dis-aggregated, GMM, without intercepts) estimates from the
2005
revision. An
appendix on a permanent-transitory
decomposition of idiosyncratic shocks is available as a PDF file.
*
“Equity
Integration
in
Times
of
Crisis”
(with Robert P. Flood). The line: financial crises can affect the integration of stock markets. In Market Discipline. A short draft is available as a PDF file, as is a longer working paper version (easier to read, more results). The zipped data sets are available in Excel, E-Views 4 and STATA 8 formats (2.1 MB). The E-Views programs and sample output are available in a zipped file. Overheads for a talk are available as a PDF file.
*
“Equity
Integration
in
The
line: the
*
“Financial
Integration:
A
New
Methodology
and
an
Illustration”
(with Robert P. Flood). The line: the S&P isn’t integrated with the NASDAQ. Journal of the European Economic Association 2005. NBER WP 9880. CEPR DP 4027. IMF WP 04/110. A draft is available as a PDF file, as is a (Feb. 2004) revision of the paper, a later (Sept. 2004) revision), and a final (March 2005) revision. The zipped data sets are available in E-Views 4 and STATA 8 formats. The E-Views programs and sample output are available in a zipped file. The E-Views programs and sample output for the current (not lagged) normalization are available in a zipped file. E-views materials for the second revision are available in a zipped file. The original Fama-French factors are available at Ken French’s website. Overhead slides for presentations are available as a PDF file, as are slides for a general talk on asset integration with examples from different papers in PDF format and as a PowerPoint presentation.
*
“A
New Approach to
Asset Integration”
(with
Robert P. Flood).
The line: asset markets aren’t very
integrated. A shorter version is in Pacific
Economic
Review 2005; a
longer version is forthcoming
in Contemporary Issues in International
Finance. A full
draft is
available as a PDF file as is a shorter
version.
The
zipped
data sets are available in E-Views 4, STATA 8, and ASCII (“outsheet”)
formats
in a large (5 MB) zipped file. A
large (5
MB) zipped Excel spreadsheet with the raw and massaged equity data is
available. A
zipped set of
Stata7 “small multiple” time-series plots of the series are available
for the
neurotic. A
zipped set of
10 E-Views 4 programs which produce key (all?) results in the paper is
available, along with corresponding output. Here’s
a
STATA
version
(with
output)
and
the
E-Views
program
(and
output)
it
replicates,
along
with
some
starting
value
sensitivity
analysis.
Overhead
slides
for
presentations
are
available
as
a
PDF
file.
The Effects of Currency Unions/Dollarization on Trade: | Top | New | Home | Topics
Yes, I’m fully aware that the Economist is skeptical of my work in the area; no need to tell me (here are a few of their recent articles and summaries).
*
“Why do Estimates of the EMU Effect on Trade Vary So Much?"
The line: if you want an accurate estimate of the EMU effect on trade, include lots of countries and years. Open Economies Review, 2017. Current version; shorter version (PDF). NBER WP 22,678. CEPR DP 11,532. Powerpoint presentation. Key output; data.
*
“Currency Unions and Trade: A Post-EMU Reassessment"
(with Reuven Glick). The line: EMU leads exports to rise by 50% even with 55,000 fixed effects European Economic Review, 2016. Early versions available as CEPR DP 10,615. NBER WP 21535. Current version (PDF). Powerpoint presentation; Heidelberg version; Valencia version. Key output; STATA data sets; extended STATA data set on export with dis-aggregate CUs/RTAs; STATA data set used in final revision (note on data error).
*
“Is EMU
Becoming an
Optimum Currency
Area? The Evidence on Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization”
The line: most people find both that EMU has raised trade, and that increased trade leads to more synchronized business cycles; so EMU is becoming an OCA. Available as a PDF file. The data set and key output is available in a Zip file.
*
“EMU, Trade
and
Business Cycle
Synchronization”
The line: most people find both that EMU has raised trade, and that increased trade leads to more synchronized business cycles. Available as a PDF file. The data set and key output is available in a Zip file. Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file. Printed in Towards the First Decade of Economic and Monetary Union (36. Volkswirtschaftliche Tagung 2008).
*
“EMU, Trade
and
Business Cycle
Synchronization: What Do We Know and What Does it Mean for Poland?”
The line: Poland is a good candidate for EMU accession on the basis of its trade and business cycle synchronization with the eurozone. This is a variant of "EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization" and was used for the National Bank of Poland's Report on Adopting the Euro. Available as a PDF file. The Polish data set is available in a Zip file. Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file.
* A presentation on recent (as of 2005) developments in OCA Empirics is available
* A brief PowerPoint presentation that summarizes my thoughts is available
*
“A
Meta-Analysis
of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade”
(with T.D. Stanley). The line: most people find currency unions raise trade a lot. Journal of Economic Surveys 2005. Available as a PDF file. Earlier versions are available as: NBER WP 10373. CEPR DP 4341. Available in early draft form as a PDF file. The data set and key output is available in a Zip file. Overhead slides for a talk are available as a PDF file.
*
“The
Effect of
Common Currencies on International Trade: Where Do We Stand?”
The line: even more people find currency unions raise trade a lot. MAS OP 22. Available as a PDF file. The Excel data set is also available, as is sample output.
*
“The
Effect of
Common Currencies on International Trade: A Meta-Analysis”
The
line: most people find currency unions raise trade a lot.
In Monetary
Unions and Hard Pegs: Effects on Trade,
Financial Development, and Stability (Alexander,
Mélitz, and von Furstenberg, eds,
*
“Does
a Currency
(with
Reuven
Glick). The line: leaving a currency
union halves
trade. The
European
Economic
Review 2002. A revised draft
is
available as a PDF file; earlier versions are available as CEPR DP
2891
and NBER WP 8396.
The
(relevant part) of the data set is available as a STATA 7.0
data set. Sample output
(for Tables
1-5) is also available. Overhead
transparencies for talks are available as a PDF file.
o
Another
paper of relevance is
“Is Gravity
Linear?”
by Henderson and Millimet
*
“Honey,
the
Currency
Union
Effect
on
Trade
Hasn’t
Blown
Up”
The line: currency unions raise trade a lot. This is in The World Economy 2002 and is also available as a PDF file. It is a response to Volker Nitsch’s paper “Honey, I Shrunk the Currency Union Effect on Trade” which is also in The World Economy 2002.
*
“National
Money
as
a
Barrier
to
International
Trade:
The
Real
Case
for
Currency
(with Eric van Wincoop) The line: currency unions raise trade and welfare a lot. American Economic Review 2001. A draft is available as a PDF file as is a slight revision with more results; the key table (that tabulates the effects of a number of currency unions on trade and welfare) is available as a 1-page PDF file. Sample output (corresponding to Table 1) is available. The zipped bilateral data set is available (in STATA/ASCII (dictionary) formats). The data and Gauss programs used to compute the results in Table 2 are available.
*
“One
Money, One
Market: Estimating The Effect of Common Currencies on Trade”
The
line: currency unions raise trade a lot. Economic
Policy 2000. This
paper is available as a PDF file. A more
accessible version
is also available as a PDF file; it is in California
Management
Review 2000. The abstract
and a
non-technical summary are available as a PDF file. The STATA
data set
is available. The data
set is
also available as a (large) ACII dictionary file. A few (small)
errors in
the original data set have been identified by scholars. Sample
output
(corresponding to Table 1) is available.
An early version is available as
IIES
Seminar Paper No. 678. Later
versions are available as NBER
WP
7432 and CEPR
DP 2329. A short non-technical paper is
available as a FRBSF
Economic
Letter “Do Currency Unions Increase Trade?”
This paper was the source for the Wall St. Journal
quotation and the Economist quotation.
Overhead
transparencies
for
my
talk
on
this
issue
are
available
as
a
PDF
file.
o
Torsten
Persson has
circulated a critique
that questions
my results using matching techniques; the final version is in Economic Policy 2001. Here is my original
response,
which questions his methods and confirms my results using a variety of
techniques and a new data set. The overhead
transparencies
I used at the conference are also available. A more refined final
version of
the response is in Economic
Policy
2001; some of the
key
output for it is available.
o
Volker
Nitsch has
written
another critique that is in The
World
Economy 2002. Here is my quick
response to
his initial draft: my formal
response
“Honey,
the
Currency
Union
Effect
on
Trade
Hasn’t
Blown
Up”
is
also
in
The World Economy 2002 and is also
available as
a PDF file.
o
Yet
another critique comes
from Michael
Pakko
and
Howard
Wall. Their article was published without my being
offered
the possibility of a response, so my formal response will appear only on
the web. Since the
authors simply
add dyadic fixed effects to my original data set, the real response is
my paper
with Glick.
o
Brendan
Walsh
has written (with Rodney Thom) a paper that focuses on the consequences
of the
dissolution of the Irish link to sterling in 1979 as a case study
inconsistent
with my general findings. My response is
in my
paper with Glick.
o
The Economic
Research
Forum
provides another critical summary of some of this research.
o
While
I have (as of September
2001) responded to all reasonable comments/critiques of my work, I make
no
commitment to doing so in the future.
I’m no longer working directly on the topic, and life goes on!
o
Silvana Tenreyro
has
circulated as her job-market paper “On the
Causes and
Consequences of Currency Unions”. She asserts (among other things)
that my
estimate (of the effect of currency union on trade) is halved when
trade data
is averaged across years; I am currently
unable
to replicate this finding which may be
the
result of her using a less complete (WTDB) data set than is available
(though
the IMF’s DoT). Here’s my output.
o
Euro-know
provides
a
critique
of
some
of
my
research and characterizes it as heroic and honest but
warns
that I may be “a pawn in a ruthless power game.” Gosh.
o
William
Bomberger
has a
critique associated with decolonization.
Here’s my
response as a PDF file.
o
Bo
Malmberg published an
influential op-ed
in Dagens Nyheter (here’s an
English
translation); here’s
my response.
o
Albrecht Ritschl
and Niko
Wolf are circulating “Endogeneity
of
Currency
Areas
and
Trade
Blocs:
Evidence
from
the
Inter-War
Period”
(CEPR DP 4112)
which claims
to find evidence of endogeneity in the currency union effect. It may be there, but they certainly haven’t
found it since they equate fixed exchange rates with currency unions
(according
to them
o
If
you’re interested in the
topic, you may want to check out: “Geography, Trade and Currency Union”
by
Jacques Mélitz (CEPR
DP 2987),
“Limiting Currency Volatility to
Stimulate Goods Market Integration: A
Price Based Approach” by Parsley and Wei (NBER WP 8468),
“Monetary Union,
Trade Integration, and Business Cycles …” by Flandreau and Maurel (CEPR DP 3087),
“Dollarization and Trade”
by
Klein (here’s my
response
to Klein), “On
the
Impact
of
a
Common
Currency
on
Bilateral
Trade” by Levy Yeyati, “Exchange-Rate
Regimes
and
International
Trade” by López-Córdova and Meissner, “Optimal
Currency
Areas” by Alesina, Barro and Tenreyro (the
final
version gives even larger estimates!), “Currency Unions and Gravity
Models
Revisited” by Christie Smith,
“The
Currency Union
Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from the European Union” by Micco,
Stein,
and Ordońez, “Common Currency as an Export Promoting Strategy” by Ayako
Saiki
(Brandeis), “Language and Foreign Trade” by Jacques Melitz, “Have a
Break …”
by Volker Nitsch,
“Currency
Unions
and
Trade” by Peter Kenen, “Disintegration and Trade” by
Fidrmuc and
Fidrmuc (ULB), “Has the Euro Increased Trade?” by Bun and Klaassen
(Amsterdam),
“Trade
Effects of
Monetary Integration in Large, Mature Economies” by Vinhas de
Souza (Kiel),
“Monetary
Unions
and
Trade”
by
Lochard
(Sorbonne),
“Trade volume effects of the euro” by Flam
and Nordström (IIES), “The
Impact
of
Monetary
Union
on
Trade
Prices” by Baldwin and Taglioni, “The Impact of
Euro on
Trade” by de Nardis and Vicarelli, “The Euro and Trade” by Graham,
Helliwell, Kano, Murray, and Schembri (Bank of Canada), “Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade”
by
Klein
and
Shambaugh,
“Trade
Effects
of
the
Euro:
Evidence
from
Sectoral
Data”
by
Baldwin, Skudelny,
Taglioni and
“Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Linkages” by Lee and Shin, “Monte Carlo Appraisals of
Gravity
Model Specifications” by Anderson, Ferrantino and Schaefer (here’s my
response),
“Currency Blocs and Cross-Border Investment” by Choi and Wei, “The Currency Union Effect on
Trade and the
FDI Channel” by de Sousa
and
Lochard, “One
Market, One Money, One Price?” by Allington, Kattuman, and Waldmann
(Cambridge). (If you want to add
something to this list, just send me an e-mail with a linkable paper of
relevance).
o
An
excellent recent (May
2005) review of this entire literature with special reference to the
Euro is Richard Baldwin’s
“The Euro’s Trade
Effect.” This critique (and my initial
work) has been covered by the Economist
and the Financial
Times. I also recommend Jeff Frankel’s
comments on this paper.
o
More
papers of relevance:
“Stylized Facts on Bilateral Trade and Currency Unions: Implications
for
Africa” by Tsangarides,
Ewenczyk, and
Hulej; “Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade” by Adam and Cobham; “What Determines Bilateral
Trade Flows?”
by Baxter and Kouparitsas; “Monetary
Unions,
External
Shocks
and
Economic
Performance:
A
Latin
American
Perspective”
by Edwards.
o
o
o
o
o Theo
Eicher and Henn have a "revised benchmark" estimated
in a
o Joan Costa i Font is circulating "Revisiting the 'Rose Effect:' does it pass the Spanish Regional heterogeneity Test?"
o Phillip Baur and Viktor Winschel are circulating "Bayes Network Analysis of Trade Effects of Currency Unions and Free Trade Agreements"
o Jayjit
Roy is circulating "On the Robustness of the Trade-Inducing Effects
of Trade Agreements and Currency Unions"
o Santos Silva and Tenreyro are circulating "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect"
o Meixin Guo (Tsinghua) is circulating "Hierarchical
Bayesian Method for the Gravity Equations"
*
“EMU
and Swedish Trade” is available as a PDF file in my (boring B&W)
version
The line: currency unions might raise Swedish trade a lot. Also available in the official (more photogenic color but larger) version); it was commissioned by the Swedish Employer’s Confederation. A press release by Svenskt Näringsliv is available. This report, along with a panel discussion, generated articles in Entreprenör, an editorial in Svenska Dagbladet and a slew of articles (by me, Lars Calmfors, and Carl B Hamilton) in Dagens Nyheter
The line: currency unions might raise British trade a lot. Commissioned for Britain in Europe. This paper was discussed by, among others, the Financial Times, the Guardian, the Daily Telegraph, the Irish Times, and the Scotsman. It is reprinted in Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter.
*
“The Potential Effect of EMU Entry on British
Trade”
The line: entry into EMU might raise British trade a lot. This was one of the “Submissions from Leading Academics” commissioned for HM Treasury to assess the effects of British entry into EMU (I’m #21 starting on p209, but my work is much criticized by others). The underlying research was discussed in the Treasury’s EMU Study “EMU and Trade” and mentioned in the Chancellor’s speech of June 9 2003, as well as the more entertaining shadow chancellor’s critique (Michael Howard, now leader of the British Conservative party).
Other
Effects of Currency
*
“Is EMU
Becoming an
Optimum Currency
Area? The Evidence on Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization”
The line: most people find both that EMU has raised trade, and that increased trade leads to more synchronized business cycles; so EMU is becoming an OCA. Available as a PDF file. The data set and key output is available in a Zip file.
*
“EMU, Trade
and
Business Cycle
Synchronization”
The line: most people find both that EMU has raised trade, and that increased trade leads to more synchronized business cycles. Available as a PDF file. The data set and key output is available in a Zip file. Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file.
*
“EMU, Trade
and
Business Cycle
Synchronization: What Do We Know and What Does it Mean for Poland?”
The line: Poland is a good candidate for EMU accession on the basis of its trade and business cycle synchronization with the eurozone. This is a variant of "EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization" and was used for the National Bank of Poland's Report on Adopting the Euro. Available as a PDF file. The Polish data set is available in a Zip file. Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file.
* “Checking Out: Exits from Currency Unions”
The line: countries leaving currency unions
are larger, richer, more democratic, but no more volatile than those
staying in currency unions.
Journal
of Financial Transformation
2007.
A draft is available as a PDF file.
The STATA data set is
available as is
key output. There
is a small error in the data set.
- A more informal version that is easier to read is available as a PDF file and from Vox.
*
“An
Estimate of
the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Growth”
(with
Jeffrey
Frankel) The line: currency unions
might raise trade
and output a lot. Quarterly
Journal
of
Economics 2002. NBER WP 7857. CEPR DP 2631
(more up to date than the NBER version). A current draft
is available
as a PDF file. The zipped bilateral
data set is
available (in STATA/ASCII formats); (take note of the errors in
my EP data set, from which it was derived),
as is the panel
(country/year)
data
set. Zipped
sample
output
(for
Table
2)
is
available.
A longer
version of
Table V is available. Overhead
transparencies for a seminar are available as a PDF file. Note that there was a (small) error in
the data set
used for the first version of the paper. Our op-ed
piece in the Financial
Times is available (in German) as is coverage of
our piece
in Canada’s National Post and coverage in
the Independent.
o
Dani Rodrik
has a
comment
on
our
paper, which states that our results are sensitive to
outliers,
institutions and geography. Here is our
response,
which shows the robustness of our findings and the zipped
sample output
that underlies it (and provides even more sensitivity analysis).
o
Santana-Gallego,
Ledesma-Rodriguez, Perez-Rodriguez, and Cortes-Jimenez
have written "Does a
Common Currency Promote Countries' Growth via Trade and Tourism?"
*
“Currency
Unions
and
International
Integration”
(with
Charles Engel) The
line:
currency unions are different. Journal of Money,
Credit,
and Banking 2002. NBER WP 7872. CEPR
DP
2659. A draft is
available as
a PDF file. The zipped bilateral
data set is
available (in STATA/ASCII/Excel formats), as is the panel
(country/year)
data set. The data sets are
documented in the paper, though a (brief) documentation
note
is
available
here. Note that
there was a (small) error
in the data set used for the first version of the paper. Some zipped
sample
output is available as is a
comprehensive set of
output files (with programs embedded).
o
You
may want to check out “Determinants
of
Business
Cycle
Comovement”
by Baxter and Kouparitsas.
o
You
may also want to check
out “Estimation of Models for Country-Pair Data controlling for
Clustered
Errors” by Colin Cameron
and
Natalia Golotvina
*
“Common Currency Areas in
Practice”
The line: more than you want to know about currency unions. In Revisiting the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates (Bank of Canada, 2001). A draft is available as a PDF file. The zipped bilateral data set is available (in STATA/ASCII formats), as is the panel (country/year) data set
*
“Do
Monetary
Handcuffs Restrain Leviathan? Fiscal
Policy in Extreme Exchange Rate Regimes”
(with
Antonio
Fatás)
The line: currency unions have subtle effects on fiscal policy. CEPR DP
2692, IMF
Staff Papers
2001. The data set is available in STATA, Excel or ASCII
format. A draft is
available as
a PDF file. Sample
output
(corresponding to Table 3) is available.
Optimum Currency Areas:
| Top
| New | Home | Topics
*
“Endogenous Optimum Currency Areas: Where do we Stand?”
The line: more trade leads to tighter business cycle synchronization ... and there's little more that's clear. Available as a PowerPoint presentaion.
*
“Is EMU
Becoming an
Optimum Currency
Area? The Evidence on Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization”
The line: most people find both that EMU has raised trade, and that increased trade leads to more synchronized business cycles; so EMU is becoming an OCA. Available as a PDF file. The data set and key output is available in a Zip file.
*
“EMU, Trade
and
Business Cycle
Synchronization”
The line: most people find both that EMU has raised trade, and that increased trade leads to more synchronized business cycles. Available as a PDF file. The data set and key output is available in a Zip file. Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file.
*
“EMU, Trade
and
Business Cycle
Synchronization: What Do We Know and What Does it Mean for Poland?”
The line: Poland is a good candidate for EMU accession on the basis of its trade and business cycle synchronization with the eurozone. This is a variant of "EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization." Available as a PDF file. The Polish data set is available in a Zip file. Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file.
* “Checking Out: Exits from Currency Unions”
The line: countries leaving currency unions are larger, richer, more democratic, but no more volatile than those staying in currency unions. Journal of Financial Transformation 2007. A draft is available as a PDF file. The STATA data set is available as is key output. There is a small error in the data set.
- A more informal version that is easier to read is available as a PDF file and from Vox.
*
A
presentation on
recent (as of 2005) developments in OCA Empirics is available
*
“Fiscal
Divergence
and
Business
Cycle
Synchronization:
Irresponsibility
is
Idiosyncratic”
(with Zsolt Darvas (website) and György Szapáry). The line: similar fiscal deficits lead to similar business cycles. NBER WP 11580. CEPR DP 5188. Magyar Nemzeti Bank WP 2005.3. Tanszéki Tanulmányok 2005/4. A draft is available as a PDF file. A Hungarian version is available in Közgazdasági Szemle 2005. The main data is available in a zip-file. It is in 3 formats: STATA 8, STATA outsheet (ASCII, suitable for spreadsheets), and STATA dictionary (ASCII). Key output is available in a zip-file. Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file, and (slightly different) as a PowerPoint show. An accessible version (if you speak Hungarian) is available in Vilaggazdasag (Nov 22, 2005).
- You may also be interested in "Fiscal Convergence, Business Cycle Volatility and Growth" by Davide Furceri.
*
“Currency
Unions”
for The New Palgrave. The line: I survey work on currency unions. A draft is available as a PDF file.
*
“Currency
Unions
and
International
Integration”
(with
Charles Engel) The
line:
currency unions are different. Journal of Money,
Credit,
and Banking 2002. NBER WP 7872. CEPR
DP
2659. A draft is
available as
a PDF file. The zipped bilateral
data set is
available (in STATA/ASCII/Excel formats), as is the panel
(country/year)
data set. The data sets are
documented in the paper, though a (brief) documentation
note
is
available
here. Note that
there was a (small) error
in the data set used for the first version of the paper. Some zipped
sample
output is available as is a
comprehensive set of
output files (with programs embedded).
o
You
may want to check out “Determinants
of
Business
Cycle
Comovement” by Baxter and Kouparitsas.
o
You
may also want to check
out “Estimation of Models for Country-Pair Data controlling for
Clustered
Errors” by Colin Cameron
and
Natalia Golotvina
*
“Common
Currency
Areas
in
Practice”
The line: more than you want to know about currency unions. In Revisiting the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates (Bank of Canada, 2001). A draft is available as a PDF file. The zipped bilateral data set is available (in STATA/ASCII formats), as is the panel (country/year) data set
*
“The
Endogeneity
of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria”
(with
Jeffrey
Frankel)
The line: trade integration causes business cycle synchronization. Economic
Journal 1998.
Also
circulating
(in
a
less
technical
format,
with
application
to
Sweden)
as
"Economic Structure and the
Decision to Adopt a Common Currency " NBER
WP
5700 CEPR
DP 1473. The
STATA data is available. The most
current
version is available as a PDF File. A longer
version is
also available as a PDF File. A short press
release
is available as a PDF File.
o
If
you’re interested in this
work, you may want to check out:
1.
“Determinants
of Business
Cycle Comovement” by Baxter and Kouparitsas
2.
“Can
the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation
between
Trade and Comovement?” by Kose and Yi
3.
“Monetary
4.
“Determinants of
Business
Cycle Synchonisation Across Euro Area Countries” by Böwer and
Guillemineau,
and
5.
“Trade and
Business
Cycle Synchronization in OECD Countries” by Inklaar, Jong-a-Pin,
and de
Haan.
6.
“Comovement in GDP Trends and
Cycles Among Trading Partners" by Blonigen, Piger, and Sly.
*
“Is EMU More Justifiable Ex
Post than Ex
Ante?”
(with
Jeffrey
Frankel)
The line: Yes, since trade integration causes business cycle
synchronization. The
European
Economic
Review 1997. Available as a
PDF File.
*
“Comment
on
Dornbusch,
Favero
and
Giavazzi”
Economic
Policy
1998.
Available as a
PDF File.
Speculative Attacks on
Exchange Rate Systems: | Top |
New | Home | Topics
*
“The Causes
and
Consequences of the
2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure”
(with Mark Spiegel). The line: countries with greater trade and financial exposure to the United States had smaller crises in 2008. Pacific Economic Review, 2010. A draft is available as a PDF file. NBER WP 15358. CEPR Discussion Paper 7466. A PowerPoint presentation is available. The STATA-10 data set. Key output.
*
“The Causes
and
Consequences of the
2008 Crisis: Early Warning”
(with Mark Spiegel). The line: it's easier to figure out which countries were affected by the 2008 financial crisis than why. Japan and the World Economy, 2012. NBER WP 15357. CEPR Discussion Paper 7354. A draft is available as a PDF file. A simpler version is available (from Vox)/ A PowerPoint presentation is available. The STATA-10 data set. Key output.
*
“Uncovered
Interest
Parity
in
Crisis:
The
Interest
Rate
Defense
in
the
1990s”
The
line: UIP still works badly. (with Robert Flood), presented at Assaf Razin’s festschrift in
Tel Aviv,
March 2001. CEPR DP 2943, , and
IMF
WP/01/207. A draft is
available as
a PDF file. A shorter
version that
focuses exclusively on UIP is also available; it is published in IMF
Staff Papers
2002. A version is also in Economic Policy in
the
International Economy (Helpman and Sadka, eds, Cambridge Press,
2003). The
data set is
available as a STATA (ASCII) dictionary file. The
pooled data
set is also available as a STATA data set. The data
sources are
described more fully in a PDF file. Sample
output for UIP
tests is available.
*
“Does
it Pay to
Defend against a Speculative Attack?”
(with
Barry
Eichengreen)
The line: countries who suffer successful currency attacks suffer big
output
losses. In Managing Currency
Crises
(edited by Jeffrey Frankel and Michael Dooley). The data set
is
available as an (ASCII) dictionary file.
A
draft is
available as a PDF file.
*
“The
Empirics of
Currency and Banking Crises”
The
line: we survey out work on crises. (with Barry
Eichengreen).
NBER
Reporter
1999 Available as
a PDF
file.
*
“Exchange
Market
Mayhem:
The
Antecedents
and
Aftermath
of
Speculative
Attacks”
(with Barry Eichengreen and Charles Wyplosz) The line: currency crises are heterogeneous. Economic Policy 1995, available as a PDF file. The data set is available as an (ASCII) dictionary file.
o If you’re interested in this type of crisis measure, you may want to check out "Measures of Currency Crises: A Survey" by Angkinand, Li and Willett.
*
“After
the Deluge:
Do Fixed Exchange Rates Allow Inter-Temporal Volatility Tradeoffs?”
The
line: No, there’s no tradeoff. NBER
WP
5219 CEPR DP 1240, International
Journal
of
Finance
and
Economics 1996. The STATA
data set is
available.
*
“Speculative
Attacks
on
Pegged
Exchange
Rates:
An
Empirical
Exploration
with
Special
Reference
to
the
European Monetary System”
The
line: a first pass at modeling currency crises. (with Barry
Eichengreen
and Charles Wyplosz),
in The
New Trans-Atlantic Economy (edited by Canzoneri, Ethier and Grilli)
1996, NBER WP 4898 CEPR DP 1060. The STATA data
set is
available.
Contagion in Currency
Crises: | Top |
New | Home | Topics
*
“Contagion
and
Trade:
Why
Are
Currency
Crises
Regional?”
(with Reuven Glick) The line: currency crises follow the patterns of international trade. NBER WP 6806, CEPR DP 1947, Journal of International Money and Finance 1999. A working draft is available as a PDF File. The Data set is available in an Excel spreadsheet. A short version of the research (focusing on understanding the incidence of attacks) is available, as is a longer version (which also has analysis of attack intensity and sensitivity analysis), and a more accessible version for non-economists in Risk.
*
“Contagious
Currency
Crises”
(with Barry Eichengreen and Charles Wyplosz) The line: currency crises follow the patterns of international trade. NBER WP 5681 CEPR DP 1453. Click for the STATA data. Available as a PDF File. Part of this paper was published in the Scandinavian Journal of Economics 1996. A sample program and its output log are available. Replication requires this file of trade weights. Economist coverage.
*
“Limiting
Currency Crises and Contagion: Is there a Case for an Asian Monetary
Fund?”
The
line: Yes. Delivered as a public lecture
while I was the Professorial Fellow in Monetary Economics at Victoria
University and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Versions of this have
been
published as an op-ed
and a Federal
Reserve
Bank
of
San
Francisco
Economic
Letter
1999.
Banking and Exchange
Crises in Developing
Countries: |
Top |
New | Home | Topics
*
“27 Up: The
Implications for China of Abandoning its Dollar Peg"
(with Barry Eichengreen). The line: China has little to fear from leaving its fixed exchange rate policy. A draft is available as a PDF file. The STATA-11 data set is available; key output is available. Coverage by: Wall St. Journal; NPR. The VoxEU version.
*
“Staying
Afloat
When
the
Wind
Shifts:
External
Factors
and
Emerging-Market
Banking
Crises”
(with
Barry
Eichengreen)
) The line: Northern interest rates provoke Southern banking crises. In Money,
Factor Mobility and Trade: Essays in Honor of Robert Mundell
(edited by
Guillermo Calvo, Rudiger Dornbusch and Maurice Obstfeld), 2001,
*
“Currency
Crashes
in
Emerging
Markets:
An
Empirical
Treatment”
(with
Jeffrey
Frankel),
The line: currency crashes are pretty heterogeneous.
The
Journal
of
International
Economics 1996, NBER
WP
5437 CEPR DP 1349. The working
paper
version is available as a PDF file. The STATA
data is
available as either a STATA data set or as an ASCII STATA dictionary
file. A
sample
estimation
program
is
available.
Great Recession of 2008-09: |
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*
“Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports"
The line: quantitative easing and/or negative interest rates don't lead to export booms. Forthcoming, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. Current version. Online appendices. NBER WP 24,817. An early version appeared as CEPR DP 11,748. Powerpoint presentation. Key output. Data.
*
“Does Government Intervention Affect Banking Globalization?"
(with Anya Kleymenova and Tomasz Wieladek). The line: Yes! There's more evidence of financial protectionism during the global financial crisis. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2016. Current version (PDF). Key output. Powerpoint presentation. CEPR DP 11,108. NBER WP 21,981.
*
“Financial
Protectionism? First Evidence"
(with Tomasz Wieladek) The line: after non-British banks are nationalized, they contract their British lending and raise interest rates; first evidence of financial protectionism. A newly revised draft is available as a PDF file, as is an earlier revision. Journal of Finance, 2014 (here's the version in their style). NBER WP 17073 (from NBER). CEPR DP 8404 (from CEPR). Bank of England External MPC DP 32 (from Bank of England). A non-technical version is available from VOXEU. Overhead slides are available for a presentation. A web-only appendix is available. Comparison with Ait-Sahalia et al. Key output is available. The data set cannot be posted (it's confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I'll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn't reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time).
*
“Surprising Similarities: Recent Monetary Regimes of Small Economies"
The line: monetary regimes have been stable during and since the global financial crisis, thanks to inflation targeting. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014. Current version (PDF); NBER WP 19,632; CEPR DP 9684. Powerpoint slides (5-slide version); Key output; STATA data set.
* “International Financial Integration and Crisis Intensity"
The line: international financial integration had little effect on the cross-country intensity of the 2008-09 financial crisis. A draft is available as a PDF file. ADBI WP 341. A Powerpoint presentation is available. The STATA-11 data set. Key Output.
*
“Too Big to
Fail: Some Empirical Evidence on the Causes and Consequences of Public
Banking Interventions in the UK"
(with Tomasz Wieladek) The line: the British authorities rescue large banks, and the rescues work. A draft is available. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2012. Presentations slides are available as a PDF file. Sample output for key tables. The data set cannot be posted (it's confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I'll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication.
*
“Dollar
Illiquidity and Central Bank Swap Arrangements During the Global
Financial Crisis"
(with Mark Spiegel). The line: it's hard in practice (but not in theory) to explain why the dollar appreciated during the 2008 financial crisis. Journal of International Economics. NBER WP 17359. CEPR DP 8557. An updated draft is available as a PDF file. Technical appendix. Overhead Slides. The abbreviated version of the STATA-11 data set; the complete data set. Key output.
*
“The Causes
and
Consequences of the
2008 Crisis: Early Warning”
(with Mark Spiegel). The line: it's easier to figure out which countries were affected by the 2008 financial crisis than why. Japan and the World Economy, 2012. NBER WP 15357. CEPR Discussion Paper 7354. A draft is available as a PDF file. A simpler version is available (from Vox). A PowerPoint presentation is available. The STATA-10 data set. Key output.
*
“The Causes
and
Consequences of the
2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure”
(with Mark Spiegel). The line: countries with greater trade and financial exposure to the United States had smaller crises in 2008. Pacific Economic Review, 2010. A draft is available as a PDF file. NBER WP 15358. CEPR Discussion Paper 7466. A PowerPoint presentation is available. The STATA-10 data set. Key output.
*
“Cross-Country Causes
and
Consequences of the
2008 Crisis: An Update"
(with Mark Spiegel). The line: it's tough to find pre-2008 "early warning" indicators of countries that suffered big recessions in 2008-09. European Economic Review 2011. CEPR DP 7901. NBER WP 16,243. A draft is available as a PDF file. A PDF presentation is available. A combined longer presentation is available. The STATA-11 data set. Key output.
- If you're interested in work like this, check out "Looking for a Needle in a Haystack" by Tai-kuang Ho.
- Also see "Weathering the Crisis" by Cecchetti, King and Yetman.
Unconventional Monetary Policy:
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* “Why Have Negative Nominal Interest Rates Had Such a Small Effect on Bank Performance? Cross Country Evidence"
(wiith Jose Lopez and Mark Spiegel). The line: negative interest rates havn't hurt bank profits. Current version. CEPR DP 13,010. NBER WP 25,004. Key output. Shorter Powerpoint presentation. Longer Powerpoint presentation. The data set cannot be posted (it's confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I'll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn't reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time).
Commentary by Cechetti and Schoenholtz.
* “Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports"
The line: quantitative easing and/or negative interest rates don't lead to export booms. Forthcoming, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. Current version. Online appendices. NBER WP 24,817. An early version appeared as CEPR DP 11,748. Powerpoint presentation. Key output. Data.
* “Exchange Rate Behavior with Negative Interest Rates: Some Early Negative Observations"
(with Allaudeen Hameed) The line: negative nominal interest rates haven't affected exchange rate behavior. Current version; shorter version. Key output; data. Powerpoint presentation. CEPR DP 11,498, Pacific Economic Review 2018.
Exchange Rate Determination:
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*
“Forecasting
International
Financial
Prices
with
Fundamentals:
How
do
Stocks
and
Exchange
Rates
Compare?"
(with Robert Flood). The line: stock markets are just as difficult to forecast as exchange rates, even with future “fundamentals.” In Globalization and Economic Integration (Gaston and Khalid editors, Edward Elgar 2010). An earlier version circulated as "Why So Glum? The Meese-Rogoff Methodology Meets the Stock Market" CEPR DP 6714. A draft is available as a PDF file, as are overhead slides. The STATA data set is available as is key output.
* “Fertility and the Real Exchange Rate”
(with Suktiandi Supaat and Jacob Braude). The line: more fertile countries have more appreciated real exchange rates. Canadian Journal of Economics 2009. NBER WP 13,263. CEPR DP 6312. A revised draft is available as a PDF file, as is an earlier version, and overhead slides. The STATA data set is available as is key output. Covered in the Business Times (easy to print), as well as the South China Morning Post and Today.
*
“Exchange
Rate
Volatility,
Monetary
Policy,
and
Capital
Mobility:
Empirical
Evidence
on
the
Holy
Trinity”
The line: Mundell’s trinity doesn’t work so well in practice. The Journal of International Money and Finance 1996, NBER WP 4630 CEPR DP 929. The STATA data set and output are available.
*
“A
Panel Project
on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries”
(with Jeffrey Frankel) The line: PPP works OK at medium and long horizons. The Journal of International Economics 1996, NBER WP 5006 CEPR DP 1128. The STATA data set.
*
“Empirical
Research
on
Nominal
Exchange
Rates”
(with
Jeffrey
Frankel)
The line: we survey nominal exchange rate determination.
In The
Handbook
of
International
Economics.
Monetary and Exchange
Rate Regimes: | Top |
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“Bond Vigilantes and Inflation"
(with Mark Spiegel). The line: a long-maturity, nominal, domestic-currency bond market lowers inflation. International Journal of Central Banking, 2018. Earlier versions available as CEPR DP 10,124. NBER WP 20,494. Current version (PDF). Powerpoint presentation. Key output; STATA data set; some data on bond dates.
*
“Surprising Similarities: Recent Monetary Regimes of Small Economies"
The line: monetary regimes have been stable during and since the global financial crisis, thanks to inflation targeting. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014. Current version (PDF); NBER WP 19,632; CEPR DP 9684. Powerpoint slides (5-slide version); Key output; STATA data set.
*
“Flexing Your
Muscles: Effects of Abandoning Fixed Exchange Rates For Greater
Flexibility"
(with Barry Eichengreen).
The
line:
China
has
a little
to
fear
from
leaving
its
fixed
exchange
rate
policy. NBER
International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2012. A
draft is available as a PDF file. Slides for
a presentation are available. The STATA-11
data
sets are available; key output
is available.
*
“Exchange
Rate Regimes in the Modern Era: Fixed, Floating, and Flaky"
The line: we don't know much about the causes or consequences of different exchange rate regimes, and that's OK. Journal of Economic Literature 2011. CEPR DP 7987. A draft is available as a PDF file. Slides for a talk. The STATA-11 data set. Key Output.
*
“Exchange
Rate Policy in Small Rich Economies"
(with Francis Breedon and Thorarinn Petursson). The line: small rich countries shouldn't have floating exchange rates. Open Economies Review. A draft is available as a PDF file. The STATA-11 data set is available.
*
“Understanding
Business
Cycle
Synchronization:
Is
Inflation
Targeting
Paving
the
Way
to
Asian
Monetary
Union?”
The line: inflation targeting seems to increase business cycle synchronization. In "Costs and Benefits of Economic Integration in Asia" (Barro and Lee, editors, Oxford University Press, 2011). A draft is available as a PDF file as is a set of overhead slides. The zipped STATA data set is available, as is key output.
*
“Inflation
Targeting
and Business Cycle
Synchronization”
(with Robert Flood). The line: countries that target inflation tend to have more synchronized business. A draft is available as a PDF file. Journal of International Money and Finance 2010. CEPR Discussion Paper 7377. A simpler version is available (from Vox). Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file. The STATA data set is available. Sample output is available.
* “Is Old Money Better Than New? Duration and Monetary Regimes.”
(with Ilian Mihov). The line: more durable monetary regimes, like inflation targeting, deliver better inflation than more fragile regimes (like fixed exchange rates). Economics 2008. CEPR DP 6529. A draft is available as a PDF file. The STATA data set is available as is key output.
* “Checking Out: Exits from Currency Unions”
The line: countries leaving currency unions are larger, richer, more democratic, but no more volatile than those staying in currency unions. Journal of Financial Transformation 2007. A draft is available as a PDF file. The STATA data set is available as is key output. There is a small error in the data set.
- A more informal version that is easier to read is available as a PDF file and from Vox.
* “A Stable International Monetary System Emerges: Bretton Woods, Reversed”
The line: Bretton Woods may or may not have been revived; it’s certainly been reversed. Journal of International Money and Finance 2007. NBER WP 12,711. CEPR DP 5854. A draft is available as a PDF file. The data sets are available as is key output. Overhead slides are available as a PDF file. Slides for a presentation at the Italian Senate are available as a PDF file. International Herald Tribune coverage, Nov 28 2006 (PDF). Indian Express coverage, Jan 27 2007 (PDF).
