Andrew K. Rose: Recent Research

Bernard T. Rocca Jr. Professor of International Business
Economic Analysis and Policy

URL: http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/arose

Haas School of Business

University of California, Berkeley

Berkeley, CA 94720-1900

Telephone: 510-642-6609

Facsimile: 510-642-4700

E-mail: arose@haas.berkeley.edu

Last updated: November 18, 2009

What’s New?

Recent (unpublished) papers are available in reverse chronological order.

What have I done recently?

My recent research since 1995 is organized by topic.

Some pieces are easier to read.

The work I’m currently presenting (in conferences and seminars) is collected together.

Co-authors (and the curious): Work in progress (i.e., no finished paper) is in a separate section.

What have I ever done?

A complete list of my publications in reverse chronological order is available in my curriculum vitae.

What else is available at this website?

Check me out: links to my co-authors, research networks, affiliations, publishers, and rankings.

Data: a brief description of the software I use for papers and econometrics, and information on how and why I provide data sets.

Research Organized by Topic. My recent research can be clustered into a few (sometimes overlapping) areas (research is typically listed within area in reverse chronological order):

· International Trade: Trade Patterns; Sovereign Default; and the Multilateral (GATT/WTO) system

· Currency Unions: Effects on Trade; Effects on Output and other Phenomena; Optimum Currency Areas

· Finance: International Finance; and Financial Asset Integration

· Crises: Speculative Exchange Rate Attacks; Contagion in Currency Crises; and Crises in Developing Countries.

· Exchange Rates: Determination; and Monetary Regimes

· Size: Country Effects

· Miscellaneous, comments on the work of others, and work in progress

What Else is Available? From this page you can check out my record, find out about (and buy!) one of my books, and obtain research papers, data sets, output, presentations, press coverage, and more:

Check me out | Top | New | Home | Topics

· I’m a Research Associate in the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in Cambridge; there are abstracts and PDF copies of many of my working papers, contact details, and easy access to all the NBER working papers I’ve issued.

o NBER "yellow-jacket" working papers can be ordered from this site at a nominal charge; they are widely available at academic and/or policy libraries.

· I’m a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) in London; there are some abstracts, PDF copies of many of my recent working papers, and some data sets, and easy access to all the CEPR discussion papers I’ve issued.

o CEPR discussion papers can be ordered from this site, and are available at academic and/or policy libraries.

· All my articles published by Elsevier Science journals (with PDF files and articles that cite mine).

· My papers in the SSRN Electronic Library.

· My papers at Scientific Commons.

· My blog entries/research summaries at Vox.

· My personal IDEAS/RePEc page with downloadable articles and journal links, access statistics and citations.

o I’m currently (Sept 2008) ranked #65 of 17,000 economists,

· Author impact analysis is available for me from Harzing's "Publish or Perish". As of Sept 2009 my h-index was 52 and my total citations exceeded 17,000.

· Citations of my papers (and the papers themselves) through Google Scholar. As of Sept 2008, my Google citation count was over 14,000 and my h-index was 53 (I have 53 papers with at least 53 citations each).

· Citations are also available through the (more reliable) SSCI. As of March 2009, there were 1951 SSCI citations for “Rose AK*” (there are more for “Rose A*”), and my SSCI h-index was 22.

o As of December 2007 I was #58 of the most cited scientists in Economics and Business (Thomson).

· The inevitable question: what’s my Coupé number in the ranking of economists? Currently I’m ranked #120 by citations weighted by number of years since publication; #141 by unweighted citations, #184 by citations weighted for co-authorship.

· Link (or send e-mail) to some of my recent co-authors, including: George Akerlof, Zsolt Darvas, Barry Eichengreen, Charles Engel, Antonio Fatás, Rob Feenstra, Bob Flood, Jeff Frankel, Reuven Glick, Ben Hermalin, Olivier Jeanne, Jim Markusen, Ilian Mihov, Mark Spiegel, T.D. Stanley, György Szapáry, Eric van Wincoop, Charles Wyplosz, and Janet Yellen.

Find out about (and buy) one of my Books | Top | New | Home | Topics

· International Finance and Financial Crises (edited with Peter Isard and Assaf Razin), Kluwer 2000.

· Growth and Productivity in East Asia (EASE 13, edited with Takatoshi Ito), University of Chicago Press 2004.

· International Trade in East Asia (EASE 14, edited with Takatoshi Ito), University of Chicago Press 2005.

· Monetary Policy with very low Inflation in the Pacific Rim (EASE 15, edited with Takatoshi Ito), University of Chicago Press 2006.

· Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia (EASE 16, edited with Takatoshi Ito), University of Chicago Press 2007.

· International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim (EASE 17, edited with Takatoshi Ito), University of Chicago Press 2008.

· Financial Sector Development in East Asia (EASE 18, edited with Takatoshi Ito), University of Chicago Press 2009.

Obtain Research Papers, Data Sets, and Output | Top | New | Home | Topics

· I rarely own the copyright of published papers: it has been transferred to the publisher of the journal/book. I provide the files below for individual use only. Please obtain legal permission from the publisher for reproduction, if it is necessary.

· My recent papers are available as PDFs (Adobe Acrobat Portable Document Files), so they can be read on any platform and printed easily. (Since my papers are freely available on the web, I do not ordinarily mail reprints.)

o If you do not have the Adobe Acrobat reader installed, it can be obtained for free from the Adobe web page.

· Over 40 zipped data sets for my recent research are available below. These are usually available as STATA data sets, but sometimes as Excel worksheets, E-Views work files or in ASCII “dictionary” files (with variable descriptions in the headers). If you use my data sets, please acknowledge this in print where appropriate. More importantly, if you find an error in one of my data sets or programs, please let me know! There are also some sample programs and output.

o Before complaining about a data set or requesting something, please read this. Graduate Students and others: I provide data sets and sample output as a professional courtesy so that others can replicate my findings, not (primarily) for the convenience of others doing their own research. Please do not abuse my courtesy (e.g., by asking me for something that you can obtain yourself easily enough, complaining about formatting, or asking for access to a data set when I haven’t posted the paper yet). Lots of people think my data sets are easily accessible.

1. I do not respond to questions that can be answered with information on my website. Look before you ask!

2. If you do not use STATA (I now use version 10), you can transfer between different formats with Stat/Transfer. Details are available at the Stat/Transfer web site. Sorry, I don’t provide their software! (And if you can’t handle ASCII [dictionary] files, I won’t be able to help).

3. If you do not have a program to unzip files, you’ll need one. One (among many) choice is Winzip; you may obtain it from their web site. (And if you can’t handle zipped files, I won’t be able to help you).

4. I provide my data sets in their final “massaged” format, not original source data, except in very special circumstances. If you’re interested in source data, you’ll be able to find it … at the sources (always discussed in my papers). I do not use (or provide) proprietary data sets. Please do not ask me to provide data sets that are easily accessible.

5. I don’t typically provide codebooks, since they’re embedded: variable descriptions are provided in the STATA data sets and in STATA dictionary files. Variable descriptions and descriptive statistics are also typically provided in each output. I also often embed information into STATA data sets with “notes.”

6. If you do have an issue with a data set (or whatever), please ensure I can understand it (e.g., mention which project and please be specific with e.g., URLs). I don’t respond to frivolous or unclear e-mail about data sets.

7. All my recent research that is publicly available is … publicly available here. Please don’t ask me for something that isn’t here unless you’re either a friend or very important; I almost surely won’t be able to help you. And please do look before you ask me for something already posted.

· I sometimes also provide: press coverage; overhead slides (as PDF files); presentations (as PowerPoint files); original programs; links and/or responses to my critics; and so forth.

Recent Unpublished Papers, in Reverse Chronological Order: | Top | Home | Topics

· “The International Economic Order in the Aftermath of the 'Great Recession:' A Cautious Case of Optimism”

A draft is available as a PDF file.

· “The Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure”

(with Mark Spiegel). The line: countries with greater trade and financial exposure to the United States had smaller crises in 2008. A preliminary draft is available as a PDF file. NBER WP 15358. CEPR Discussion Paper 7466. A Powerpoint presentation is available. The STATA-10 data set. Key output.

· “Determinants of Agricultural and Mineral Commodity Prices”

(with Jeffrey Frankel). A draft is available as is a Powerpoint presentation. The STATA data set. Key output is available.

· “The Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning”

(with Mark Spiegel). The line: it's easier to figure out which countries were affected by the 2008 financial crisis than why. Forthcoming, Global Journal of Economics. NBER WP 15357. CEPR Discussion Paper 7354. A draft is available as a PDF file. A simpler version is available (from Vox)/ A Powerpoint presentation is available. The STATA-10 data set. Key output.

· “Inflation Targeting and Business Cycle Synchronization”

(with Robert Flood). The line: countries that target inflation tend to have more synchronized business. A draft is available as a PDF file. Forthcoming, Journal of International Money and Finance. CEPR Discussion Paper 7377. A simpler version is available (from Vox). Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file. The STATA data set is available. Sample output is available.

· “Understanding Business Cycle Synchronization: Is Inflation Targeting Paving the Way to Asian Monetary Union?”

The line: inflation targeting seems to increase business cycle synchronization. A draft is available as a PDF file as is a set of overhead slides. The zipped STATA data set is available, as is key output.

· “The Olympic Effect”

(with Mark Spiegel). The line: countries that try to host mega-events may really be trying to signal trade liberalization. A draft is available as a PDF file, as is a set of overhead slides. Sample output is available. The key STATA data sets are available. CEPR DP7248; NBER WP 14,854. NPR Coverage.

In the blogosphere at: Vox; New York Times Freakonomics; Wall Street Journal; Marginal Revolution.

· “Why So Glum? The Meese-Rogoff Methodology Meets the Stock Market”

(with Robert Flood). The line: stock markets are just as difficult to forecast as exchange rates, even with future “fundamentals.” CEPR DP 6714. A draft is available as a PDF file, as are overhead slides. The STATA data set is available as is key output.

· “The Effect of Membership in the GATT/WTO on Trade: Where Do We Stand?”

The line: I review the evidence on the trade effects of WTO membership. Forthcoming in The WTO and Economic Welfare (edited by Zdenek Drabek). A draft is available as a PDF file as is a marginally different version intended for the Handbook of Economic Integration (edited by Miroslav Jovanovic).

Less Technical Papers that are Easier to Read: | Top | New | Home | Topics

· “The International Economic Order in the Aftermath of the 'Great Recession:' A Cautious Case of Optimism”

A draft is available as a PDF file.

· Predicting Crises: Did Anything Matter (to Everybody)? (from FRBSF Economic Letter)

· Could an Early Warning System Have Predicted the Crisis ? (from Vox)

· Debunking "Decoupling" (from Vox)

· Why bid for the Olympic Games? (from Vox)

· Why have Currency Unions Dissolved? A Test of Optimum Currency Area Theory (from Vox)

· Economic Spillovers from International Environmental Cooperation (from Vox)

· Are International Financial Crises a Relic of the Past? Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Vaccine (from Vox)

· Recent Views on Trade Patterns and Trade Policy (from The New Republic)

· U.S. Consulates Raise Exports

· Macroeconomic Determinants of International Trade

· Does the World Trade Organization Actually Promote World Trade? (the view of The Economist, a reprise from The Economist, and the view of Libération)

· Do Currency Unions Increase Trade? (two views from The Economist and their view of the Baldwin critique)

· EMU and Swedish Trade (disputed by various Swedes)

· EMU’s Potential Effect on British Trade: A Quantitative Assessment (disputed by many Brits)

· The Empirics of Currency and Banking Crises

· Limiting Currency Crises and Contagion: Is there a Case for an Asian Monetary Fund?

· Dynamic Measures of Competitiveness: Are the Geese Still Flying in Formation?

International Trade Patterns: | Top | New | Home | Topics

· “The Effect of Membership in the GATT/WTO on Trade: Where Do We Stand?”

· “The Foreign Service and Foreign Trade: Embassies as Export Promotion”

The line: embassies and consulates have a small positive effect on exports. The World Economy 2007. NBER WP 11111. CEPR DP 4953. A draft is available as a PDF file, as is a revision. The zipped data set is available (along with the underlying data sets, usually in Excel spreadsheets). Key STATA output is available for the original draft, and for the revision. The paper is summarized in the August 2005 NBER Digest. Forbes covered this in 9/2005 (easy to read). Corriere della Sera covered this in 9/2005 (easy to read … if you speak Italian). Overhead transparencies are available as a PDF file.

If you’re interested in this, you may want to check out “Measuring the Impact of Regional Export Promotion: The Spanish Case” by Gil-Pareja, Llorca-Viero, and Martínez-Serrano (University of Valencia).
Another related paper is “State Visits and International Trade” by Volker Nitsch
Also of interest is “The Impact of Embassies and Consulates on Tourism” by Gil-Pareja, Llorca-Viero, and Martínez-Serrano (University of Valencia).
More papers of relevance; "Diplomatic Relations and Trade Reorientation in Transition Countries" by Maurel and Afman; "The Effect of Foreign Service on Trade Volumes and Trade Partners" by Segura-Cayuela and Vilarrubia; "Is Economic and Commercial Diplomacy Useful for Developing Countries?" by Yakop and van Bergeijk; "Export Promotion Agencies" by Lederman, Olarreaga, and Payton.

· “Macroeconomic Determinants of International Trade”

The line: I survey my work on trade, currency unions, the WTO, and sovereign debt. NBER Reporter, Fall 2004. A draft is available as a PDF file.

· “Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?”

The line: membership in the GATT/WTO has no effect on trade volatility. Open Economies Review 2005. NBER WP 10207. CEPR DP 4246. MAS OP 27. The original draft is available as a PDF file, as is a revision. The zipped bilateral and multilateral data sets are available in STATA 8 format. Sample output is available in a zipped file. Output and data specific to the revision are available in a zipped file.

· “Which International Institutions Promote International Trade?”

The line: the OECD works better (and the IMF and GATT/WTO worse) then you might think in promoting trade. Review of International Economics 2005. CEPR DP 3764. A draft is available as a PDF file, as is a revised version. The bilateral data set is available in zipped STATA 7.0 format (35MB). Note that there is a (small) error in the data set. Supporting zipped output is available as are a few checks mentioned in the revision.

· “Do We Really Know that the WTO increases Trade?”

The line: countries in the GATT/WTO don’t trade much more than non-members. American Economic Review 2004. NBER WP 9273. CEPR DP 3538. HKIMR WP 18/2002. MAS Occasional Paper No. 24. RSC No. 2003/15 (EUI). A fuller draft is available as a PDF file, as is a shortened version. This was summarized in the May 2003 NBER Digest. Supporting output. The bilateral data set is available in zipped STATA 7.0 format (35MB). Note that there is a (small) error in the data set. The Penn World Table mark 6 is available elsewhere. Overheads are available as a PDF file and the PowerPoint show is also available. I sometimes refer to the actual GATT; here are some GATT articles of interest. There’s been coverage on BBC TV and radio, in the Financial Times (there’s a response in the FT from the WTO’s chief economist on Nov 14, 2002 and other responses on Nov 20 and Nov 21), the Economist (here’s an easy version to print), a reprise from The Economist (easier to print), Bloomberg, Libération, Foreign Policy, and the Financial Post (here’s an easier version to print). If you’re into non-sequiturs, check out The Road to Surfdom. I’ve been called “irreverent and contrarian” in front of the House Ways and Means committee (goodness me!). The CEPR has a press release. My son is thanked; here’s why.

Arvind Subramanian and Shang-Jin Wei have circulated their critique “The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly but Unevenly” NBER Working Paper 10,024. My response is available as a PDF file. Supporting output and the multilateral data sets (in STATA 8.2 format) are available in a zipped file.
Goldstein, Rivers, and Tomz are circulating a critique entitled “Membership has its Privileges: The Impact of GATT on International Trade”. My early response is available as a PDF file a revision will be published in the AER as “The Gatt: It’s Everywhere You Want it to Be.” Supporting output is available in a zipped file.
Another pair of critiques are “Evaluating WTO Accessions” and “WTO Membership and Market Access” by Evenett, Gage and Kennett.
If you are interested in this area, other papers of relevance include:

1. “Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade” by Felbermayr and Kohler,

2. “A Very Exclusive Club: The Effects of GATT, 1950-92” by Gowa and Kim,

3. “WTO and Growth” by Li and Wu,

4. “GATT/WTO Promotes Trade Strongly: Sample Selection and Model Specification” by Liu,

5. “Russia and the WTO: The ‘Gravity’ of Outsider Status” by Lissovolik and Lissovolik, and

6. “How Important is State Enforcement for Trade?” by Leeson.

7. “Trading Partners and Trading Volumes” by Helpman, Melitz and Rubinstein.

8. “Demystifying Modelling Methods for Trade Policy” by Piermartini and Teh.

9. “Joining the World Trade Organization: It’s All About the Exports” by Christopher Balding.

10. “What is Known about the Effects of WTO Accession on Developing Countries?” by Evenett

11. “On the Emergence of an MFN Club” by Saggi and Sengul

12. “Do the WTO and the GSP foster bilateral trade? by Herz and Wagner

13. “The WTO Trade Effect” by Chang and Lee.

14. “The Impact of the GATT/WTO on Trade: Formal Members vs. Non-member Participants” by Liu.

15. “In Search of WTO Trade Effects” by Eicher and Hennn.

16. “Corruption and Bilateral Trade Flows” by Dutt and Traca.

17. “Properly Measuring the Impact of Multilateral Institutions on World Trade" by Kim. My response is available as a PDF file.

18. “WTO Membership and the Extensive Margin of World Trade" by Felbermayr and Kohler.

19. “Is the WTO Mystery Really Solved?" by Jayjit Roy.

· “Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting out the Causality”

(with Jeffrey Frankel) The line: trade isn’t bad for the environment. The Review of Economics and Statistics 2005. NBER WP 9201. The full version is available as a PDF file as is a much more user-friendly short version. The Stata data set is available, as is key output. Reviewed in NBER Digest, November 2002.

If you are interested in this work, you should read “The Environmental Consequences of Trade” by Millimet

· “Using the Gravity Model to Differentiate Among Alternative Theories of Trade”

(with Robert Feenstra and James Markusen) The line: there’s more to gravity than you think. NBER WP #6804, CEPR DP No. 2035, Canadian Journal of Economics 2001 (available to CJE subscribers). A draft is available as a PDF file as is a revision of the paper. The STATA bilateral export data set is available as is sample output (which covers Table 2). Note that there was a (small) error in the original data set.

· “Putting Things in Order: Trade Dynamics and Product Cycles”

(with Robert Feenstra) The line: countries and goods can be ordered by export timing. Review of Economics and Statistics 2000, NBER WP 5975, CEPR DP 1629. Available as a PDF File. The raw data is available in a STATA data set. Country rankings are also available in a STATA data set. Baseline goods’ rankings are available as a STATA dictionary (ASCII).

· “Dynamic Measures of Competitiveness: Are the Geese Still Flying in Formation?”

The line: Asians export in an order. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 1997. Available as a PDF File.

The Multilateral (GATT/WTO) System and Trade: | Top | New | Home | Topics

· “The Effect of Membership in the GATT/WTO on Trade: Where Do We Stand?”

· “Macroeconomic Determinants of International Trade”

The line: I survey my work on trade, currency unions, the WTO, and sovereign debt. NBER Reporter, Fall 2004. A draft is available as a PDF file.

· “Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?”

· Notes on the Effects of WTO Membership on FDI and Services

The line: countries in the GATT/WTO don’t have more FDI flows or trade in services. A short memo is available as a PDF file or in html.

· “Which International Institutions Promote International Trade?”

The line: the OECD works better (and the IMF and GATT/WTO worse) then you might think in promoting trade. Review of International Economics 2005. CEPR DP 3764. A draft is available as a PDF file, as is a revised version. The bilateral data set is available in zipped STATA 7.0 format (35MB). Note that there is a (small) error in the data set. Supporting zipped output is available as are a few checks mentioned in the revision.

· “Do WTO Members have More Liberal Trade Policy?”

The line: countries in the GATT/WTO don’t have more liberal trade policy. Journal of International Economics 2004. NBER WP 9347. CEPR DP 3659. A draft of the paper is available as a PDF file as is a revised version. This was summarized in the May 2003 NBER Digest. Tables are available as a PDF file. The data set is available in 3 formats: a) zipped STATA 7.0 format; b) zipped ASCII (Stata dictionary file); c) zipped ASCII (State outsheet format; spreadsheet-style). Supporting output is available in zipped ASCII files as is supplemental material (output and a graphic) added later.

If you are interested in this area, other papers of relevance include:

1. “A Very Exclusive Club: The Effects of GATT, 1950-92” by Gowa and Kim,

2. “What is Known about the Effects of WTO Accession on Developing Countries?” by Evenett

3. “On the Emergence of an MFN Club” by Saggi and Sengul

· “Do We Really Know that the WTO increases Trade?”

Arvind Subramanian and Shang-Jin Wei have circulated their critique “The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly but Unevenly” NBER Working Paper 10,024. My response is available as a PDF file. Supporting output and the multilateral data sets (in STATA 8.2 format) are available in a zipped file.
Goldstein, Rivers, and Tomz are circulating a critique entitled “Membership has its Privileges: The Impact of GATT on International Trade”. My early response is available as a PDF file a revision will be published in the AER as “The Gatt: It’s Everywhere You Want it to Be.” Supporting output is available in a zipped file.
Another pair of critiques are “Evaluating WTO Accessions” and “WTO Membership and Market Access” by Evenett, Gage and Kennett.
If you are interested in this area, other papers of relevance include:

1. “Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade” by Felbermayr and Kohler,

2. “A Very Exclusive Club: The Effects of GATT, 1950-92” by Gowa and Kim,

3. “WTO and Growth” by Li and Wu,

4. “GATT/WTO Promotes Trade Strongly: Sample Selection and Model Specification” by Liu,

5. “Russia and the WTO: The ‘Gravity’ of Outsider Status” by Lissovolik and Lissovolik, and

6. “How Important is State Enforcement for Trade?” by Leeson.

7. “Trading Partners and Trading Volumes” by Helpman, Melitz and Rubinstein.

8. “Demystifying Modelling Methods for Trade Policy” by Piermartini and Teh.

9. “Joining the World Trade Organization: It’s All About the Exports” by Christopher Balding.

10. “What is Known about the Effects of WTO Accession on Developing Countries?” by Evenett

11. “On the Emergence of an MFN Club” by Saggi and Sengul

12. “Do the WTO and the GSP foster bilateral trade? by Herz and Wagner

13. “The WTO Trade Effect” by Chang and Lee.

14. “The Impact of the GATT/WTO on Trade: Formal Members vs. Non-member Participants” by Liu.

15. “In Search of WTO Trade Effects” by Eicher and Hennn.

16. “Corruption and Bilateral Trade Flows” by Dutt and Traca.

17. “Properly Measuring the Impact of Multilateral Institutions on World Trade" by Kim. My response is available as a PDF file.

18. “WTO Membership and the Extensive Margin of World Trade" by Felbermayr and Kohler,

19. “Is the WTO Mystery Really Solved?" by Jayjit Roy.

Sovereign Default and Trade: | Top | New | Home | Topics

· “Non-Economic Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental Treaties”

(with Mark Spiegel). The line: joining international environmental treaties has economic benefits. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2009. NBER WP 13,988. CEPR DP 5942. A new draft is available as a PDF file, as is an older draft. Overhead slides are available as a PDF file. A user-friendly executive summary is available from Vox. A ZIP file containing relevant data is available as is output. A related paper "International Environmental Arrangements and International Commerce" is forthcoming" in Steven Brakman and Peter A. G. van Bergeijk, eds., Recent Applications of the Gravity Model, (Cambridge University Press).

· “Macroeconomic Determinants of International Trade”

The line: I survey my work on trade, currency unions, the WTO, and sovereign debt. NBER Reporter, Fall 2004. A draft is available as a PDF file.

· “A Gravity Model of Sovereign Lending: Trade, Default, and Credit”

(with Mark Spiegel). The line: international loans follow trade patterns. IMF Staff Papers 2004. NBER WP 9285. CEPR DP 3539. A current version is available as a PDF file (here are the derivations). Overhead slides for transparencies are available as a PDF file, and there’s also a PowerPoint presentation. Supporting output. The data set is available in zipped STATA 7.0 format.

If you’re interested in this work, you should check out the excellent discussion provided by Mark Wright.

· “One Reason Countries Pay their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade”

The line: sovereign default is followed by shrinking trade. Journal of Development Economics 2005. FRBNY Staff Report No 142, CEPR DP 3157, HKIMR WP 4/2002, NBER WP 8853. A longer draft is available as a PDF file, as is a more condensed version. The data set is available in STATA 7.0 format. Details on Paris Club renegotiations are available as an Excel spreadsheet. Sample output covering Table 1 (including descriptive statistics from Appendix 2) and the new Table 4c is available. Overhead transparencies are available as a PDF file.

Jose Vicente Martinez and Guido Sandleris at Columbia Economics are circulating a critique “Is it Punishment? Sovereign Defaults and the Decline in Trade.” My response is available as a PDF file.
You may also be interested in “Supersanctions and Sovereign Debt Repayment” by Mitchener and Wedienmier.
Another recent reference/critique is “The Trade Costs of Default” by Eduardo Borensztein and Ugo Panizza.

International Finance: | Top | New | Home | Topics

· “The Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure”

· “The Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning”

· “Non-Economic Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental Treaties”

(with Mark Spiegel). The line: joining international environmental treaties has economic benefits. Forthcoming, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. NBER WP 13,988. CEPR DP 5942. A new draft is available as a PDF file, as is an older draft. Overhead slides are available as a PDF file. A user-friendly executive summary is available from Vox. A ZIP file containing relevant data is available as is output.

· “Why So Glum? The Meese-Rogoff Methodology Meets the Stock Market”

· “International Financial Remoteness and Macroeconomic Volatility”

(with Mark Spiegel). The line: the further a country is from financial activity, the more volatile its business cycle. Journal of Development Economics, 2009. NBER WP 14,336. A current version of the paper is available as a PDF file, as are earlier long and short versions, and overhead slides. The STATA data set is available as is key output.

· “A Stable International Monetary System Emerges: Bretton Woods, Reversed”

The line: Bretton Woods may or may not have been revived; it’s certainly been reversed. Journal of International Money and Finance 2007. NBER WP 12,711. CEPR DP 5854. A draft is available as a PDF file. The data sets are available as is key output. Overhead slides are available as a PDF file. Slides for a presentation at the Italian Senate are available as a PDF file. International Herald Tribune coverage, Nov 28 2006 (PDF). Indian Express coverage, Jan 27 2007 (PDF).

A more informal version that is easier to read is available as a PDF file and from Vox.

· “Offshore Financial Centers: Parasites or Symbionts?”

(with Mark Spiegel). The line: offshore financial centers are good for domestic bank competition, even if they encourage tax evasion and money laundering. Economic Journal 2007. NBER WP 12044. CEPR DP 5081. A draft of the original version of the paper is available as a PDF file, as is a revision. The zipped Stata data set is available (along with many of the underlying data sets, usually in Excel spreadsheets). Key output for the original is available in a zipped file, as is a set of output files for the revision. Overhead slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file. Economist coverage available (as a PDF file). A press release is available as a PDF file.

· “Equity Integration in Times of Crisis”

(with Robert P. Flood). The line: financial crises can affect the integration of stock markets. In Market Discipline. A short draft is available as a PDF file, as is a longer working paper version (easier to read, more results). The zipped data sets are available in Excel, E-Views 4 and STATA 8 formats (2.1 MB). The E-Views programs and sample output are available in a zipped file. Overheads for a talk are available as a PDF file.

· “Equity Integration in Japan: An Application of a New Method”

The line: the Tokyo stock exchange isn’t always integrated. Monetary and Economic Studies 2004. IMES Discussion Paper No. 2004-E-1. A draft is available as a PDF file. The zipped data sets are available in Excel (raw), STATA 8 (easy), and E-Views 4 (estimation) formats (2.0 MB). The E-Views programs and sample output are available in a zipped file. Overheads for a talk are available as a PDF file.

· “A New Approach to Asset Integration”

(with Robert P. Flood). The line: asset markets aren’t very integrated. Forthcoming in Contemporary Issues in International Finance. A preliminary draft is available as a PDF file. The zipped data sets are available in E-Views 4, STATA 8, and ASCII (“outsheet”) formats in a large (5 MB) zipped file. A large (5 MB) zipped Excel spreadsheet with the raw and massaged equity data is available. A zipped set of Stata7 “small multiple” time-series plots of the series are available for the neurotic. A zipped set of 10 E-Views 4 programs which produce key (all?) results in the paper is available, along with corresponding output. Here’s a STATA version (with output) and the E-Views program (and output) it replicates, along with some starting value sensitivity analysis. Overhead slides for presentations are available as a PDF file.

· “A Gravity Model of Sovereign Lending: Trade, Default, and Credit”

If you’re interested in this work, you should check out the excellent discussion provided by Mark Wright.

· “Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis: The Interest Rate Defense in the 1990s”

The line: UIP still works badly. (with Robert Flood), presented at Assaf Razin’s festschrift in Tel Aviv, March 2001. CEPR DP 2943, , and IMF WP/01/207. A draft is available as a PDF file. A shorter version that focuses exclusively on UIP is also available; it is published in IMF Staff Papers 2002. A version is also in Economic Policy in the International Economy (Helpman and Sadka, eds, Cambridge Press, 2003). The data set is available as a STATA (ASCII) dictionary file. The pooled data set is also available as a STATA data set. The data sources are described more fully in a PDF file. Sample output for UIP tests is available.

· “Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes”

(with Olivier Jeanne) The line: noise traders make fixed exchange rates seem reasonable. CEPR DP 2142 NBER WP 7104 RBNZ G99/2, Quarterly Journal of Economics 2002. A draft is available as a PDF File. The E-Views (interest and exchange rate) and STATA (macroeconomic) data sets used in the original working paper are available, as are the data sets (in ASCII, Excel and STATA formats) used in the revision. Sample output (corresponding to Table 1) is available.

If you’re interested in this work, you should check out the critique by Geraint Jones (MIT Economics) “Prevention or Cure? Exchange Rate Regimes and Noise Traders”

· “Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle”

(with Robert Flood) The line: we estimate the peso puzzle. Review of Economics and Statistics 1996 NBER WP 4928 Available as a PDF File. The STATA data set.

· “Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals”

(with Robert Flood) The line: macro fundamentals don’t vary across exchange rate regimes, but exchange rates do. The Journal of Monetary Economics 1995, NBER WP 4503 Available as a PDF File.

Financial Asset Integration: | Top | New | Home | Topics

· “The Expected Marginal Rate of Substitution in the United States and Canada”

The line: the TSE and the NYSE stock markets don’t seem very integrated. In Canada in the Global Economy 2004. A draft is available as a PDF file, Overhead slides are available as a PDF file. The zipped data sets are available in STATA 8 format (4.3 MB). Sample output is available in a zipped file.

· “Estimating the Expected Marginal Rate of Substitution: A Systematic Exploitation of Idiosyncratic Risk”

(with Robert P. Flood). The line: stock markets don’t seem very integrated. Journal of Monetary Economics 2005. Earlier versions are available as NBER WP 10805. CEPR DP 4684. The original version is available as a PDF file, as is a dramatic revision. Overhead slides are available as a PDF file. The zipped data sets are available in STATA 8 format (4.3 MB). Sample output is available in a zipped file; here are some (monthly, dis-aggregated, GMM, without intercepts) estimates from the 2005 revision. An appendix on a permanent-transitory decomposition of idiosyncratic shocks is available as a PDF file.

If you’re interested in this work, you should check out the critiques: 1) Marshall’s “Comment” and 2) Parsley and Schlag’s “Measuring Financial Integration via Idiosyncratic Risk: What Effects are We Really Picking Up?”

· “Equity Integration in Times of Crisis”

· “Equity Integration in Japan: An Application of a New Method”

· “Financial Integration: A New Methodology and an Illustration”

(with Robert P. Flood). The line: the S&P isn’t integrated with the NASDAQ. Journal of the European Economic Association 2005. NBER WP 9880. CEPR DP 4027. IMF WP 04/110. A draft is available as a PDF file, as is a (Feb. 2004) revision of the paper, a later (Sept. 2004) revision), and a final (March 2005) revision. The zipped data sets are available in E-Views 4 and STATA 8 formats. The E-Views programs and sample output are available in a zipped file. The E-Views programs and sample output for the current (not lagged) normalization are available in a zipped file. E-views materials for the second revision are available in a zipped file. The original Fama-French factors are available at Ken French’s website. Overhead slides for presentations are available as a PDF file, as are slides for a general talk on asset integration with examples from different papers in PDF format and as a PowerPoint presentation.

· “A New Approach to Asset Integration”

(with Robert P. Flood). The line: asset markets aren’t very integrated. A shorter version is in Pacific Economic Review 2005; a longer version is forthcoming in Contemporary Issues in International Finance. A full draft is available as a PDF file as is a shorter version. The zipped data sets are available in E-Views 4, STATA 8, and ASCII (“outsheet”) formats in a large (5 MB) zipped file. A large (5 MB) zipped Excel spreadsheet with the raw and massaged equity data is available. A zipped set of Stata7 “small multiple” time-series plots of the series are available for the neurotic. A zipped set of 10 E-Views 4 programs which produce key (all?) results in the paper is available, along with corresponding output. Here’s a STATA version (with output) and the E-Views program (and output) it replicates, along with some starting value sensitivity analysis. Overhead slides for presentations are available as a PDF file.

The Effects of Currency Unions/Dollarization on Trade: | Top | New | Home | Topics

Yes, I’m fully aware that the Economist is skeptical of my work in the area; no need to tell me (here are a few of their recent articles and summaries).

· “Is EMU Becoming an Optimum Currency Area? The Evidence on Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization”

The line: most people find both that EMU has raised trade, and that increased trade leads to more synchronized business cycles; so EMU is becoming an OCA. Available as a PDF file. The data set and key output is available in a Zip file.

· “EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization”

The line: most people find both that EMU has raised trade, and that increased trade leads to more synchronized business cycles. Available as a PDF file. The data set and key output is available in a Zip file. Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file. Printed in Towards the First Decade of Economic and Monetary Union (36. Volkswirtschaftliche Tagung 2008).

· “EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization: What Do We Know and What Does it Mean for Poland?”

The line: Poland is a good candidate for EMU accession on the basis of its trade and business cycle synchronization with the eurozone. This is a variant of "EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization" and was used for the National Bank of Poland's Report on Adopting the Euro. Available as a PDF file. The Polish data set is available in a Zip file. Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file.

· A presentation on recent (as of 2005) developments in OCA Empirics is available

· A brief PowerPoint presentation that summarizes my thoughts is available

· “A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade”

(with T.D. Stanley). The line: most people find currency unions raise trade a lot. Journal of Economic Surveys 2005. Available as a PDF file. Earlier versions are available as: NBER WP 10373. CEPR DP 4341. Available in early draft form as a PDF file. The data set and key output is available in a Zip file. Overhead slides for a talk are available as a PDF file.

· “The Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade: Where Do We Stand?”

The line: even more people find currency unions raise trade a lot. MAS OP 22. Available as a PDF file. The Excel data set is also available, as is sample output.

· “The Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade: A Meta-Analysis”

The line: most people find currency unions raise trade a lot. In Monetary Unions and Hard Pegs: Effects on Trade, Financial Development, and Stability (Alexander, Mélitz, and von Furstenberg, eds, Oxford, 2004). Available in draft form as a PDF file. The Excel data set is also available, as is sample output, and a set of overheads for a talk (as a PDF file).

· “Does a Currency Union affect Trade? The Time-Series Evidence”

(with Reuven Glick). The line: leaving a currency union halves trade. The European Economic Review 2002. A revised draft is available as a PDF file; earlier versions are available as CEPR DP 2891 and NBER WP 8396. The (relevant part) of the data set is available as a STATA 7.0 data set. Sample output (for Tables 1-5) is also available. Overhead transparencies for talks are available as a PDF file.

o Another paper of relevance is “Is Gravity Linear?” by Henderson and Millimet

· “Honey, the Currency Union Effect on Trade Hasn’t Blown Up”

The line: currency unions raise trade a lot. This is in The World Economy 2002 and is also available as a PDF file. It is a response to Volker Nitsch’s paper “Honey, I Shrunk the Currency Union Effect on Trade” which is also in The World Economy 2002.

· “National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union”

(with Eric van Wincoop) The line: currency unions raise trade and welfare a lot. American Economic Review 2001. A draft is available as a PDF file as is a slight revision with more results; the key table (that tabulates the effects of a number of currency unions on trade and welfare) is available as a 1-page PDF file. Sample output (corresponding to Table 1) is available. The zipped bilateral data set is available (in STATA/ASCII (dictionary) formats). The data and Gauss programs used to compute the results in Table 2 are available.

· “One Money, One Market: Estimating The Effect of Common Currencies on Trade”

The line: currency unions raise trade a lot. Economic Policy 2000. This paper is available as a PDF file. A more accessible version is also available as a PDF file; it is in California Management Review 2000. The abstract and a non-technical summary are available as a PDF file. The STATA data set is available. The data set is also available as a (large) ACII dictionary file. A few (small) errors in the original data set have been identified by scholars. Sample output (corresponding to Table 1) is available. An early version is available as IIES Seminar Paper No. 678. Later versions are available as NBER WP 7432 and CEPR DP 2329. A short non-technical paper is available as a FRBSF Economic Letter “Do Currency Unions Increase Trade?” This paper was the source for the Wall St. Journal quotation and the Economist quotation. Overhead transparencies for my talk on this issue are available as a PDF file.

o Torsten Persson has circulated a critique that questions my results using matching techniques; the final version is in Economic Policy 2001. Here is my original response, which questions his methods and confirms my results using a variety of techniques and a new data set. The overhead transparencies I used at the conference are also available. A more refined final version of the response is in Economic Policy 2001; some of the key output for it is available.

o Volker Nitsch has written another critique that is in The World Economy 2002. Here is my quick response to his initial draft: my formal response “Honey, the Currency Union Effect on Trade Hasn’t Blown Up” is also in The World Economy 2002 and is also available as a PDF file.

o Yet another critique comes from Michael Pakko and Howard Wall. Their article was published without my being offered the possibility of a response, so my formal response will appear only on the web. Since the authors simply add dyadic fixed effects to my original data set, the real response is my paper with Glick.

o Brendan Walsh has written (with Rodney Thom) a paper that focuses on the consequences of the dissolution of the Irish link to sterling in 1979 as a case study inconsistent with my general findings. My response is in my paper with Glick.

o The Economic Research Forum provides another critical summary of some of this research.

o While I have (as of September 2001) responded to all reasonable comments/critiques of my work, I make no commitment to doing so in the future. I’m no longer working directly on the topic, and life goes on!

o Silvana Tenreyro has circulated as her job-market paper “On the Causes and Consequences of Currency Unions”. She asserts (among other things) that my estimate (of the effect of currency union on trade) is halved when trade data is averaged across years; I am currently unable to replicate this finding which may be the result of her using a less complete (WTDB) data set than is available (though the IMF’s DoT). Here’s my output.

o Euro-know provides a critique of some of my research and characterizes it as heroic and honest but warns that I may be “a pawn in a ruthless power game.” Gosh.

o William Bomberger has a critique associated with decolonization. Here’s my response as a PDF file.

o Bo Malmberg published an influential op-ed in Dagens Nyheter (here’s an English translation); here’s my response.

o Albrecht Ritschl and Niko Wolf are circulating “Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-War Period” (CEPR DP 4112) which claims to find evidence of endogeneity in the currency union effect. It may be there, but they certainly haven’t found it since they equate fixed exchange rates with currency unions (according to them Germany was in a currency union with New Zealand in the interwar period). Check out my brief response available as a PDF file.

o If you’re interested in the topic, you may want to check out: “Geography, Trade and Currency Union” by Jacques Mélitz (CEPR DP 2987), “Limiting Currency Volatility to Stimulate Goods Market Integration: A Price Based Approach” by Parsley and Wei (NBER WP 8468), “Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles …” by Flandreau and Maurel (CEPR DP 3087), “Dollarization and Trade” by Klein (here’s my response to Klein), “On the Impact of a Common Currency on Bilateral Trade” by Levy Yeyati, “Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade” by López-Córdova and Meissner, “Optimal Currency Areas” by Alesina, Barro and Tenreyro (the final version gives even larger estimates!), “Currency Unions and Gravity Models Revisited” by Christie Smith, “The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from the European Union” by Micco, Stein, and Ordoñez, “Common Currency as an Export Promoting Strategy” by Ayako Saiki (Brandeis), “Language and Foreign Trade” by Jacques Melitz, “Have a Break …” by Volker Nitsch, “Currency Unions and Trade” by Peter Kenen, “Disintegration and Trade” by Fidrmuc and Fidrmuc (ULB), “Has the Euro Increased Trade?” by Bun and Klaassen (Amsterdam), “Trade Effects of Monetary Integration in Large, Mature Economies” by Vinhas de Souza (Kiel), “Monetary Unions and Trade” by Lochard (Sorbonne), “Trade volume effects of the euro” by Flam and Nordström (IIES), “The Impact of Monetary Union on Trade Prices” by Baldwin and Taglioni, “The Impact of Euro on Trade” by de Nardis and Vicarelli, “The Euro and Trade” by Graham, Helliwell, Kano, Murray, and Schembri (Bank of Canada), “Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade” by Klein and Shambaugh, “Trade Effects of the Euro: Evidence from Sectoral Data” by Baldwin, Skudelny, Taglioni and “Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Linkages” by Lee and Shin, “Monte Carlo Appraisals of Gravity Model Specifications” by Anderson, Ferrantino and Schaefer (here’s my response), “Currency Blocs and Cross-Border Investment” by Choi and Wei, “The Currency Union Effect on Trade and the FDI Channel” by de Sousa and Lochard, “One Market, One Money, One Price?” by Allington, Kattuman, and Waldmann (Cambridge). (If you want to add something to this list, just send me an e-mail with a linkable paper of relevance).

o An excellent recent (May 2005) review of this entire literature with special reference to the Euro is Richard Baldwin’s “The Euro’s Trade Effect.” This critique (and my initial work) has been covered by the Economist and the Financial Times. I also recommend Jeff Frankel’s comments on this paper.

o More papers of relevance: “Stylized Facts on Bilateral Trade and Currency Unions: Implications for Africa” by Tsangarides, Ewenczyk, and Hulej; “Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade” by Adam and Cobham; “What Determines Bilateral Trade Flows?” by Baxter and Kouparitsas; “Monetary Unions, External Shocks and Economic Performance: A Latin American Perspective” by Edwards.

o Philip Lane has produced a fine summary of the Real Effects of EMU that I recommend.

o Jeff Frankel has written a fine analysis of the size of the trade effect of EMU that I like a lot.

o Volker Nitsch continues to write interesting work in this area.

o Thomas Baranga's job-market paper is relevant.

o Theo Eicher and Henn have a "revised benchmark" estimated in a relevant paper.

o Joan Costa i Font is circulating "Revisiting the 'Rose Effect:' does it pass the Spanish Regional heterogeneity Test?"

o Phillip Baur and Viktor Winschel are circulating "Bayes Network Analysis of Trade Effects of Currency Unions and Free Trade Agreements"

o Jayjit Roy is circulating "On the Robustness of the Trade-Inducing Effects of Trade Agreements and Currency Unions"

o Santos Silva and Tenreyro are circulating "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect"

· “EMU and Swedish Trade” is available as a PDF file in my (boring B&W) version

The line: currency unions might raise Swedish trade a lot. Also available in the official (more photogenic color but larger) version); it was commissioned by the Swedish Employer’s Confederation. A press release by Svenskt Näringsliv is available. This report, along with a panel discussion, generated articles in Entreprenör, an editorial in Svenska Dagbladet and a slew of articles (by me, Lars Calmfors, and Carl B Hamilton) in Dagens Nyheter

· “EMU’s Potential Effect on British Trade: A Quantitative Assessment”

The line: currency unions might raise British trade a lot. Commissioned for Britain in Europe. This paper was discussed by, among others, the Financial Times, the Guardian, the Daily Telegraph, the Irish Times, and the Scotsman. It is reprinted in Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter.

· “The Potential Effect of EMU Entry on British Trade”

The line: entry into EMU might raise British trade a lot. This was one of the “Submissions from Leading Academics” commissioned for HM Treasury to assess the effects of British entry into EMU (I’m #21 starting on p209, but my work is much criticized by others). The underlying research was discussed in the Treasury’s EMU Study “EMU and Trade” and mentioned in the Chancellor’s speech of June 9 2003, as well as the more entertaining shadow chancellor’s critique (Michael Howard, now leader of the British Conservative party).

Other Effects of Currency Union (on output, integration, …): | Top | New | Home | Topics

· “Is EMU Becoming an Optimum Currency Area? The Evidence on Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization”

· “EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization”

· “EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization: What Do We Know and What Does it Mean for Poland?”

· “Checking Out: Exits from Currency Unions”

The line: countries leaving currency unions are larger, richer, more democratic, but no more volatile than those staying in currency unions. Journal of Financial Transformation 2007. A draft is available as a PDF file. The STATA data set is available as is key output.

A more informal version that is easier to read is available as a PDF file and from Vox.

· “An Estimate of the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Growth”

(with Jeffrey Frankel) The line: currency unions might raise trade and output a lot. Quarterly Journal of Economics 2002. NBER WP 7857. CEPR DP 2631 (more up to date than the NBER version). A current draft is available as a PDF file. The zipped bilateral data set is available (in STATA/ASCII formats); (take note of the errors in my EP data set, from which it was derived), as is the panel (country/year) data set. Zipped sample output (for Table 2) is available. A longer version of Table V is available. Overhead transparencies for a seminar are available as a PDF file. Note that there was a (small) error in the data set used for the first version of the paper. Our op-ed piece in the Financial Times is available (in German) as is coverage of our piece in Canada’s National Post and coverage in the Independent.

o Dani Rodrik has a comment on our paper, which states that our results are sensitive to outliers, institutions and geography. Here is our response, which shows the robustness of our findings and the zipped sample output that underlies it (and provides even more sensitivity analysis).

· “Currency Unions and International Integration”

(with Charles Engel) The line: currency unions are different. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2002. NBER WP 7872. CEPR DP 2659. A draft is available as a PDF file. The zipped bilateral data set is available (in STATA/ASCII/Excel formats), as is the panel (country/year) data set. The data sets are documented in the paper, though a (brief) documentation note is available here. Note that there was a (small) error in the data set used for the first version of the paper. Some zipped sample output is available as is a comprehensive set of output files (with programs embedded).

o You may want to check out “Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement” by Baxter and Kouparitsas.

o You may also want to check out “Estimation of Models for Country-Pair Data controlling for Clustered Errors” by Colin Cameron and Natalia Golotvina

· “Common Currency Areas in Practice”

The line: more than you want to know about currency unions. In Revisiting the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates (Bank of Canada, 2001). A draft is available as a PDF file. The zipped bilateral data set is available (in STATA/ASCII formats), as is the panel (country/year) data set

· “Do Monetary Handcuffs Restrain Leviathan? Fiscal Policy in Extreme Exchange Rate Regimes”

(with Antonio Fatás) The line: currency unions have subtle effects on fiscal policy. CEPR DP 2692, IMF Staff Papers 2001. The data set is available in STATA, Excel or ASCII format. A draft is available as a PDF file. Sample output (corresponding to Table 3) is available.

Optimum Currency Areas: | Top | New | Home | Topics

· “Is EMU Becoming an Optimum Currency Area? The Evidence on Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization”

· “EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization”

· “EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization: What Do We Know and What Does it Mean for Poland?”

The line: Poland is a good candidate for EMU accession on the basis of its trade and business cycle synchronization with the eurozone. This is a variant of "EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization." Available as a PDF file. The Polish data set is available in a Zip file. Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file.

· “Checking Out: Exits from Currency Unions”

A more informal version that is easier to read is available as a PDF file and from Vox.

· A presentation on recent (as of 2005) developments in OCA Empirics is available

· “Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic”

(with Zsolt Darvas (website) and György Szapáry). The line: similar fiscal deficits lead to similar business cycles. NBER WP 11580. CEPR DP 5188. Magyar Nemzeti Bank WP 2005.3. Tanszéki Tanulmányok 2005/4. A draft is available as a PDF file. A Hungarian version is available in Közgazdasági Szemle 2005. The main data is available in a zip-file. It is in 3 formats: STATA 8, STATA outsheet (ASCII, suitable for spreadsheets), and STATA dictionary (ASCII). Key output is available in a zip-file. Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file, and (slightly different) as a PowerPoint show. An accessible version (if you speak Hungarian) is available in Vilaggazdasag (Nov 22, 2005).

You may also be interested in "Fiscal Convergence, Business Cycle Volatility and Growth" by Davide Furceri.

· “Currency Unions”

for The New Palgrave. The line: I survey work on currency unions. A draft is available as a PDF file.

· “Currency Unions and International Integration”

o You may want to check out “Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement” by Baxter and Kouparitsas.

o You may also want to check out “Estimation of Models for Country-Pair Data controlling for Clustered Errors” by Colin Cameron and Natalia Golotvina

· “Common Currency Areas in Practice”

· “The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria”

(with Jeffrey Frankel) The line: trade integration causes business cycle synchronization. Economic Journal 1998. Also circulating (in a less technical format, with application to Sweden) as "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency " NBER WP 5700 CEPR DP 1473. The STATA data is available. The most current version is available as a PDF File. A longer version is also available as a PDF File. A short press release is available as a PDF File.

o If you’re interested in this work, you may want to check out:

1. “Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement” by Baxter and Kouparitsas

2. “Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation between Trade and Comovement?” by Kose and Yi

3. “Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles …” by Flandreau and Maurel (CEPR DP 3087)

4. “Determinants of Business Cycle Synchonisation Across Euro Area Countries” by Böwer and Guillemineau, and

5. “Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in OECD Countries” by Inklaar, Jong-a-Pin, and de Haan.

· “Is EMU More Justifiable Ex Post than Ex Ante?”

(with Jeffrey Frankel) The line: Yes, since trade integration causes business cycle synchronization. The European Economic Review 1997. Available as a PDF File.

· “Comment on Dornbusch, Favero and Giavazzi”

Economic Policy 1998. Available as a PDF File.

Speculative Attacks on Exchange Rate Systems: | Top | New | Home | Topics

· “The Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure”

· “The Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning”

· “Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis: The Interest Rate Defense in the 1990s”

· “Does it Pay to Defend against a Speculative Attack?”

(with Barry Eichengreen) The line: countries who suffer successful currency attacks suffer big output losses. In Managing Currency Crises (edited by Jeffrey Frankel and Michael Dooley). The data set is available as an (ASCII) dictionary file. A draft is available as a PDF file.

· “The Empirics of Currency and Banking Crises”

The line: we survey out work on crises. (with Barry Eichengreen). NBER Reporter 1999 Available as a PDF file.

· “Exchange Market Mayhem: The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks”

(with Barry Eichengreen and Charles Wyplosz) The line: currency crises are heterogeneous. Economic Policy 1995, available as a PDF file. The data set is available as an (ASCII) dictionary file.

· “After the Deluge: Do Fixed Exchange Rates Allow Inter-Temporal Volatility Tradeoffs?”

The line: No, there’s no tradeoff. NBER WP 5219 CEPR DP 1240, International Journal of Finance and Economics 1996. The STATA data set is available.

· “Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System”

The line: a first pass at modeling currency crises. (with Barry Eichengreen and Charles Wyplosz), in The New Trans-Atlantic Economy (edited by Canzoneri, Ethier and Grilli) 1996, NBER WP 4898 CEPR DP 1060. The STATA data set is available.

Contagion in Currency Crises: | Top | New | Home | Topics

· “Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional?”

(with Reuven Glick) The line: currency crises follow the patterns of international trade. NBER WP 6806, CEPR DP 1947, Journal of International Money and Finance 1999. A working draft is available as a PDF File. The Data set is available in an Excel spreadsheet. A short version of the research (focusing on understanding the incidence of attacks) is available, as is a longer version (which also has analysis of attack intensity and sensitivity analysis), and a more accessible version for non-economists in Risk.

· “Contagious Currency Crises”

(with Barry Eichengreen and Charles Wyplosz) The line: currency crises follow the patterns of international trade. NBER WP 5681 CEPR DP 1453. Click for the STATA data. Available as a PDF File. Part of this paper was published in the Scandinavian Journal of Economics 1996. A sample program and its output log are available. Replication requires this file of trade weights.

· “Limiting Currency Crises and Contagion: Is there a Case for an Asian Monetary Fund?”

The line: Yes. Delivered as a public lecture while I was the Professorial Fellow in Monetary Economics at Victoria University and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Versions of this have been published as an op-ed and a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 1999.

Banking and Exchange Crises in Developing Countries: | Top | New | Home | Topics

· “Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises”

(with Barry Eichengreen) ) The line: Northern interest rates provoke Southern banking crises. In Money, Factor Mobility and Trade: Essays in Honor of Robert Mundell (edited by Guillermo Calvo, Rudiger Dornbusch and Maurice Obstfeld), 2001, Cambridge: MIT Press. A draft is available as a PDF File. The STATA data is available. NBER WP 6370. CEPR DP #1828.

· “Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment”

(with Jeffrey Frankel), The line: currency crashes are pretty heterogeneous. The Journal of International Economics 1996, NBER WP 5437 CEPR DP 1349. The working paper version is available as a PDF file. The STATA data is available as either a STATA data set or as an ASCII STATA dictionary file. A sample estimation program is available.

Exchange Rate Determination: | Top | New | Home | Topics

· “Why So Glum? The Meese-Rogoff Methodology Meets the Stock Market”

· “Fertility and the Real Exchange Rate”

(with Suktiandi Supaat and Jacob Braude). The line: more fertile countries have more appreciated real exchange rates. Canadian Journal of Economics 2009. NBER WP 13,263. CEPR DP 6312. A revised draft is available as a PDF file, as is an earlier version, and overhead slides. The STATA data set is available as is key output. Covered in the Business Times (easy to print), as well as the South China Morning Post and Today.

· “Exchange Rate Volatility, Monetary Policy, and Capital Mobility: Empirical Evidence on the Holy Trinity”

The line: Mundell’s trinity doesn’t work so well in practice. The Journal of International Money and Finance 1996, NBER WP 4630 CEPR DP 929. The STATA data set and output are available.

· “A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries”

(with Jeffrey Frankel) The line: PPP works OK at medium and long horizons. The Journal of International Economics 1996, NBER WP 5006 CEPR DP 1128. The STATA data set.

· “Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates”

(with Jeffrey Frankel) The line: we survey nominal exchange rate determination. In The Handbook of International Economics.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes: | Top | New | Home | Topics

· “Is Old Money Better Than New? Duration and Monetary Regimes.”

(with Ilian Mihov). The line: more durable monetary regimes, like inflation targeting, deliver better inflation than more fragile regimes (like fixed exchange rates). Economics 2008. CEPR DP 6529. A draft is available as a PDF file. The STATA data set is available as is key output.

· “Checking Out: Exits from Currency Unions”

A more informal version that is easier to read is available as a PDF file and from Vox.

· “A Stable International Monetary System Emerges: Bretton Woods, Reversed”

A more informal version that is easier to read is available as a PDF file and from Vox.

· “Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes”

If you’re interested in this work, you should check out the critique by Geraint Jones (MIT Economics) “Prevention or Cure? Exchange Rate Regimes and Noise Traders”

· “Do Monetary Handcuffs Restrain Leviathan? Fiscal Policy in Extreme Exchange Rate Regimes”

· “Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility Without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics”

(with Robert Flood) The line: good short-run exchange rate models aren’t macroeconomic. Economic Journal 1999 CEPR DP 1944. A draft is available as a PDF File. The STATA data set.

· “Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle”

(with Robert Flood) The line: we estimate the peso puzzle. Review of Economics and Statistics 1996 NBER WP 4928 Available as a PDF File. The STATA data set.

· “Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals”

(with Robert Flood) The line: macro fundamentals don’t vary across exchange rate regimes, but exchange rates do. The Journal of Monetary Economics 1995, NBER WP 4503 Available as a PDF File.

Country Size: | Top | New | Home | Topics

· “Well-Being in the Small and in the Large”

The line: small countries and large countries have similar social and economic characteristics. Monetary and Economic Studies 2006. IMES DP 2006-E-10. A draft is available as a PDF file. Key output is available in a zip-file. The Stata data set is available in a zip-file.

· “Size Really Doesn’t Matter: In Search of a National Scale Effect”

The line: the size of a country’s population has little effect on well-being. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 2006. NBER WP 12191. CEPR DP 5350. A draft is available as a PDF file. Key output is available in a zip-file. The key Stata data sets are available in a zip-file. Overhead transparencies are available as a PDF file.

If you are interested in this work, you should read “Country Size and Business Cycle Volatility: Scale Really Matters” by Davide Furceri and Georgios Karras.

· “Cities and Countries”

The line: the distribution of country sizes is mysteriously similar to that of city sizes. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2006. NBER WP 11762. CEPR DP 5235. A draft is available as a PDF file. Key output is available in a zip-file. The key Stata data sets are available in a zip-file. Overhead transparencies are available as a PDF file.

A new critique is "Gibrat's Law for Countries" by Gonzalez-Val and Sanso-Navarro.

Miscellaneous: | Top | New | Home | Topics

· Thoughts on the direction of the dollar in 2007

· Introduction to East Asian Seminar on Economics-18 (2007)

· Some thoughts on exchange rate modeling in 2007

· Introduction to East Asian Seminar on Economics-17 (2006)

· Introduction to East Asian Seminar on Economics-16 (2005)

· A presentation on recent (as of 2005) developments in OCA Empirics is available

· A summary of my thoughts on currency union and trade is available as a Powerpoint presentation.

· Presentation on “A New Paradigm for Asian Development: Chinese Growth, Exports, and the Exchange Rate”

Available as a PowerPoint Presentation

· Introduction to East Asian Seminar on Economics-15 (2004)

· “Quantitative Goals for Monetary Policy” with Antonio Fatás and Ilian Mihov

The line: quantitative goals for central banks help lower inflation. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2007; also NBER WP 10846, CEPR DP 4445, and ECB WP615. The paper is available in both short and extended versions as PDF files; here’s the latest iteration. A draft of the original version is available as a PDF file. Overhead slides for a talk are available as a PDF file. The zipped Stata data set is available. Key output is available in a zipped file.

· “Exchange Rate Regimes and Stability”

· Introduction to East Asian Seminar on Economics-14 (2003)

· Notes on the Effects of WTO Membership on FDI and Services

The line: countries in the GATT/WTO don’t have more FDI flows or trade in services. A short memo is available as a PDF file or in html.

· “Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting out the Causality”

If you are interested in this work, you should read “The Environmental Consequences of Trade” by Millimet

· Introduction to East Asian Seminar on Economics-13 (2002)

· Estimating protection through residuals from the gravity model

Background for chapter III of the September 2002 World Economic Outlook. The informal background paper is available as a PDF file; please do not quote without permission! Supporting output. The data set is described in a PDF file and is available in zipped STATA 7.0 format.

· Overheads for a talk on Currency Crisis Modeling (a PDF file).

· “Waiting for Work”

(with George Akerlof and Janet Yellen). Available as a PDF file. In Economics for an Imperfect World (Essays in Honor of Joseph E. Stiglitz) (Arnott, Greenwald, Kanbur, and Nalebuff, eds, MIT Press, 2003). This paper has been adapted from NBER WP 3385.

· “What should Academics tell Policy-Makers about Monetary Union?”

in Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia, Reserve Bank of Australia, 2001 is available as a PDF file, as are the overhead slides and the data (in Excel spreadsheet and ASCII formats) and the program used in the talk.

· “A Review of Some the Economic Contributions of Robert A. Mundell, Winner of the 1999 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics”