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Professor Yaniv Konchitchki (at UC
Berkeley since 2011)
Tenured Associate Professor Distinguished Teaching Fellow UC Berkeley, Haas School of Business |
CONTACT
INFO
UC Berkeley, Haas School of Business 545 Student Services Building #1900 Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Phone: (+1) 510-643-1409 Fax: (+1) 510-642-4700 Email: yaniv@berkeley.edu |
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PERSONAL: IN MEMORY
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BACKGROUND AND RESEARCH SUMMARY
Professor Konchitchki is an award-winning expert in
monetary economics, macroeconomic forecasting, inflation & economic growth,
capital markets & corporate financial reporting, Fintech, and
AI/alternative data investing.
As a Professional Macro Forecaster for the U.S.
Federal Reserve, the Founder & Faculty Director of the Berkeley Fintech
Program, and a founding father of Macro-Accounting---which identifies
interdisciplinary links between macroeconomics, capital markets, and corporate
financial reporting---he conducts research on real-world matters such as
monetary economics, inflation, GDP, Fed's policy, inequality, stock prices,
& interest rates.
His specialization in capital markets includes
developing investment algorithms and helping companies with business plans
& raising capital. Also, he developed various real-world tools and is
actively engaging in identifying stock- & macro-level movements as well as
improving forecasts for the Fed.
He is a full-time tenured associate professor at UC
Berkeley’s Haas School of Business. His PhD is from Stanford’s Graduate School
of Business, and he also holds a CPA license and an MSc from Stanford’s
Statistics. He also worked years as a Senior Economist, as well as a CPA and
Senior Financial Analysis Expert for PwC.
He has vast experience in academia and industry,
including in macroeconomic forecasting & policy making, financial reporting
& analysis, economic modeling, programming, developing investment
algorithms, audit, litigation, and Fintech. He currently conducts pioneering
research on financial-based solutions to real-world problems---benefiting
macroeconomics, finance, accounting, and related disciplines.
He is widely recognized via awards/honors, e.g.,
World’s Top 40 Under 40, Favorite MBA Professors, Notable Contributions to Literature
Award, American Accounting Association’s Best Paper Award, Bakar, Hellman,
& Schwabacher Fellowships for Distinguished Research Excellence, Cheit
Awards, Learning Innovation Award, Stanford's Jaedicke Merit Award for
Outstanding Academic Achievements, etc.
He publishes in top-tier academic & professional
journals, and he is a frequent presenter at top academic & investment
institutions, technology & litigation companies, hedge funds, VCs, &
national security intelligence forums (e.g., U.S. Cyber Command).
He advises global executives on strategy, innovation,
corporate financial & risk matters, and how macroeconomic changes affect
their firms (e.g., inflation/interest rate risks; cash flow sensitivities).
More at: https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/konchitchki-yaniv
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
· University of California at Berkeley, Haas School of Business.
Berkeley, CA, 2011-present
Tenured Associate Professor
×
Founder and Faculty Director,
Berkeley Fintech Program
×
Schwabacher Fellow, Hellman Fellow,
& Bakar Faculty Fellow for Distinguished Research Excellence
×
Lead Fintech Researcher, Wells Fargo
Lab for Banking & Financial Services
×
Faculty Director, Center for
Financial Reporting & Management
×
PhD Program Advisor
Assistant Professor
· U.S. Federal
Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Philadelphia, PA,
2021-present
Appointed as a Professional Macro Forecaster
×
Responsible for preparing long- and
short-term forecasts of various macroeconomic metrics (e.g., inflation,
real/nominal GDP) while monitoring and assessing the current economic state in
real time
×
My forecasts are shown to be
systematically superior to consensus forecasts from banks’ research departments
(such as Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs) and
brokerage houses/economic research institutions (such as Moody’s Analytics)
×
My predictive models are automated
such that, at the daily level, they crawl and analyze big datasets of all
available public information filed by U.S. corporations
×
See, e.g., Q1:2023
Fed’s survey forecasters; Q2:2022,
FullReport
· University of
Southern California, Marshall School of Business. Los Angeles,
CA, 2007-2011
Assistant Professor
· Stanford
University, Graduate School of Business. Stanford, CA, 2002-2007
Research Assistant and Doctoral Student
· CPA and Senior
Financial Consultant. PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). 2000-2002
Tasks: Auditor and CPA for
private and public companies; Preparation and analysis of financial statements;
Economist and Valuation Expert for high-tech and industrial firms in PwC’s FAS
(Financial Advisory Services) practice; Regulation analysis of antitrust cases;
Due diligence; Writing business plans
SELECTED EDUCATION
PhD in Business Administration (Stanford University,
GSB, 2007). MSc in Statistics (Stanford University, Statistics Department,
2004). CPA (Certified Public Accountant, 2002)
×
Dissertation Chair:
Prof. Mary Barth
×
Dissertation on
Macro-Accounting (inflation)
×
Jaedicke Merit Award
for Outstanding Academic Performance at Stanford’s PhD Program
RESEARCH INTERESTS
· Financial-based Solutions to Real-World Problems (e.g., monetary policy and interest determination; inflation; GDP growth; inequality; systematic errors at Federal Reserve’s communications and decisions)
· A Founder of a New Interdisciplinary Research Field:
Macro-Accounting (e.g., overall price levels; economic fluctuations & growth
including recessions and GDP; monetary policy; import tariff taxes;
interest/discount rates; real estate; national accounting; inequality)
· Capital markets research, focusing on economic links between
firms’ financial reporting and analysis, security valuation, and the
macroeconomy
· Fintech, AI/Alternative Data Investment Algorithms,
Technology/Information Systems, & Financial Innovation
EXPERTISE
· Monetary Policy, Macroeconomics, Inflation, GDP, Capital Markets
· Forecasting Firm, Industry, and Macroeconomic Performance
· Links between Macroeconomics, Firm’s Financial Data, Corporate
Valuation, and Capital Markets
· Quantitative Programming (in various languages, including for
analyses of big databases, econometric estimation, and statistical inference)
· Preparing Short- and Long-Term Economic Forecasts for the Fed
(e.g., Inflation, Real/Nominal GDP)
· Macroeconomic Analyses including Monetary Policies, Import
Tariff Taxes, Corporate Sector Performance, Real Estate, Inflation Measurement,
Inequality, Interest Rates
· Auditing, Budget Building, and Related Decision Making
· Financial Reporting, Managerial Accounting, Audit &
Corporate Finance (e.g., U.S. GAAP, securities matters, IPO/SPAC reporting and
registration, IFRS, financial statement analysis, valuation and market
efficiency/inefficiency, reporting and regulatory filings/delays/misstatements,
cost of capital, financial-based decision making, event study analyses)
· Effects of Regulations on Company’s Stocks and Operating
Performance
· Financial Technology (Fintech)
· Advisor and instructor for executives and companies. Held a number of senior managerial positions
SELECTED PUBLICATIONS
· “Inflation and Nominal Financial Reporting: Implications for Performance and Stock Prices.” 2011 (solo-authored. Vol. 86, Issue 3, pp. 1045-1085. DOI)
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW
o
Takeaway:
Inflation effects that are not recognized in financial statements
under the current nominal reporting regime have substantial implications for
stock valuation and forecasting future firms' fundamental performance.
o
Abstract:
The monetary unit assumption of financial accounting assumes a stable currency
(i.e., constant purchasing power over time). Yet, even during periods of low
inflation or deflation, nominal financial statements violate this assumption. I
posit that, while the effects of inflation are not recognized in
nominal statements, such effects may have economic consequences. I find that
unrecognized inflation gains and losses help predict future cash flows as these
gains and losses turn into cash flows over time. I also find significant
abnormal returns to inflation-based trading strategies, suggesting that stock
prices do not fully reflect the implications of the inflation effects for
future cash flows. Additional analysis reveals that stock prices act as if
investors do not fully distinguish monetary and nonmonetary assets, which is
fundamental to determining the effects of inflation. Overall, this study is the
first to show that, although inflation effects are not recognized in
nominal financial statements, they have significant economic consequences, even
during a period in which inflation is relatively low.
·
“Event
Study Methodologies in Information Systems Research.” 2011 (with O’Leary.
Vol. 12, Issue 2, pp. 99-115. DOI)
International
Journal of Accounting Information Systems
o
Takeaway:
This paper investigates the use of event studies in general information systems
and accounting information systems research, and it mainly provides event study
methodological and modeling issues, with recommendations for researchers.
o
Abstract:
Event studies are based on the theoretical framework of efficient capital
markets and the notion that security prices include all information available
to the market. As a result, announcements made by firms provide to market
participants information that can be impounded into the market price. This
paper investigates the use of event studies in information systems and
accounting information systems research using a three-pronged approach. First,
this paper provides a comprehensive survey of research that uses event study
methodologies, where the events are announcements made by firms about issues
related to information systems, e.g., announcements of the adoption of
enterprise resource planning systems and of the effect of security breaches in
firms' information systems. Second, this paper summarizes event study
methodologies used in prior research, along with some of the key parameters and
concerns associated with their implementation. Third, this paper provides
remarks on key event study modeling issues, and it offers recommendations to
researchers.
·
“Cost
of Capital and Earnings Transparency.” 2013 (with Barth,
Landsman. Vol. 55, Issue 2-3, pp. 206-224. DOI)
Journal
of Accounting and Economics
[Awarded
the BEST
PAPER AWARD of the American Accounting Association (More More)]
o
Takeaway:
U.S. corporations that are more transparent in their accounting earnings
information enjoy higher stock valuations (through lower discount rates).
o
Abstract:
We provide evidence that firms with more transparent earnings enjoy a lower
cost of capital. We base our earnings transparency measure on the extent to
which earnings and change in earnings covary contemporaneously with returns. We
find a significant negative relation between our transparency measure and
subsequent excess and portfolio mean returns, and expected cost of capital,
even after controlling for previously documented determinants of cost of
capital.
·
“Capital
Markets Valuation and Accounting Performance of Most Admired Knowledge
Enterprise (MAKE) Award Winners.” 2013 (with DeFond, McMullin, O'Leary.
Vol. 56, pp. 348-360. DOI)
Decision
Support Systems
o
Takeaway:
Using a Wisdom-of-Crowd technique (Delphi) for aggregating multiple signals
across economic agents provides important information about firms' stock
valuation and operating performance.
o
Abstract:
Researchers have used the stock price reaction to firms' disclosures of
investment in information technology to investigate the value of those
investments. This paper extends that research to include knowledge management
(KM). In particular, we test whether and how KM is valued by market
participants by examining the stock market reaction and future performance
of companies receiving the “Most Admired Knowledge Enterprise” (MAKE) award,
which recognizes companies that excel at KM. MAKE awards are generated based on
opinions gathered from experts using the Delphi method, a well-known group
decision support tool. We find that MAKE winners: (1) experience positive
abnormal returns around the award announcement, (2) report superior operating
performance relative to their peers subsequent to the receipt of the award, (3)
receive upward analyst forecast revisions following the award, (4) experience a
positive upward stock price drift following the award, and (5) that the market
has taken time to learn how to process and interpret information useful in
valuing KM. Thus, our findings contribute to the literature by finding
that market participants value KM and KM apparently positively influences
accounting performance indicators. In addition, a unique feature of our study
is that we investigate the market's response to information gathered using the
Delphi method, an information source not previously investigated in stock price
reaction literature.
·
“Accounting
Earnings and Gross Domestic Product.” 2014 (with Patatoukas. Vol. 57, Issue
1, pp. 76-88. DOI)
Journal
of Accounting and Economics
[Awarded
the NOTABLE
CONTRIBUTIONS TO ACCOUNTING LITERATURE AWARD of the American Accounting Association and the American
Institute of Certified Public Accountants]
o
Takeaway:
Accounting earnings aggregated across firms are a leading indicator of future
GDP growth; however, professional macro forecasters do not use this information
when predicting economic activity.
o
Abstract:
We document that aggregate accounting earnings growth is an incrementally
significant leading indicator of growth in nominal Gross Domestic Product
(GDP). Professional macro forecasters, however, do not fully incorporate the
predictive content embedded in publicly available accounting earnings data. As
a result, future nominal GDP growth forecast errors are predictable based on
accounting earnings data that are available to professional macro forecasters
in real time.
·
“Accounting
and the Macroeconomy: The Case of Aggregate Price-Level Effects on Individual
Stocks.” 2013 (solo-authored. Vol. 69, Issue 6, pp. 40-54. DOI)
Financial
Analysts Journal
[Journal’s
Featured Invited Author Interview: Listen Read]
o
Takeaway:
Real-time information about inflation effects on individual firms can be
extracted using different investment strategies, with several new implications
for stock valuation including stronger effects stemming from firms' nonmonetary
financial statement amounts.
o
Abstract:
This study sheds new light on the cross-sectional effects of inflation, which
have substantial implications for stock valuation. I use financial statement
analysis to examine systematic stock-valuation effects of aggregate price-level
changes on individual companies, focusing on the implications for both
researchers and investment practitioners. I develop inflation-adjustment
procedures that are straightforward for investors to implement in real time for
extracting the inflation effect on individual companies. I find that
inflation-based investment strategies conditioned on information available to
investors as of the initial investment and rebalancing dates result in
significant risk-adjusted returns. I also investigate the sources of abnormal
returns to inflation-based investment strategies. Specifically, I estimate two
separate components of the inflation effect on individual companies, one based
on only monetary holdings (using the net position of monetary holdings) and the
other based on only nonmonetary holdings. Investigating the stock-valuation
implications of extracting the components-based inflation effect reveals
striking evidence. In particular, investing based on the inflation effect on
companies’ net monetary holdings results in insignificant abnormal hedge
returns. In contrast, investing based on the inflation effect on companies’
nonmonetary holdings consistently yields economically and statistically
significant abnormal hedge returns. These findings indicate that
inflation-based abnormal hedge returns are driven not by the exposure of
companies’ net monetary holdings to inflation but, rather, by the exposure of
their nonmonetary holdings to inflation. These results are consistent with the
fact that companies’ nonmonetary holdings are usually held for
several years and thus accumulate inflationary effects over time whereas their
monetary holdings are, on average, naturally hedged because the exposure of
monetary assets cancels the exposure of monetary liabilities for the average
company. In addition, I examine the direction of the stock returns to real-time
investment strategies.
·
“Taking
the Pulse of the Real Economy Using Financial Statement Analysis: Implications
for Macro Forecasting and Stock Valuation.” 2014 (with Patatoukas. Vol. 89,
Issue 2, pp. 669-694. DOI).
The
Accounting Review
[Awarded
the NOTABLE
CONTRIBUTIONS TO ACCOUNTING LITERATURE AWARD of the American Accounting Association and the American
Institute of Certified Public Accountants]
o
Takeaway:
Financial statement analysis at the macro level provides information about
future real economic activity, macro forecasters' revisions, and stock
valuation.
o
Abstract:
In this study, we hypothesize and find that financial statement analysis of
firm profitability drivers applied at the aggregate level yields timely
insights that are relevant for forecasting real economic activity. We first
show that focusing on the 100 largest firms offers a cost-effective way to
extract information embedded in accounting profitability data of the entire
stock market portfolio. We then show that accounting profitability data
aggregated across the 100 largest firms have predictive content for subsequent
real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. We also show that stock market
returns have predictive content for future real GDP growth, while their
predictive power varies with the length of the measurement window with annual
stock market returns being the most powerful. Importantly, we find that the
predictive content of our indices of aggregate accounting profitability drivers
is incremental to that of annual stock market returns. An in-depth
investigation of consensus survey forecasts shows that professional macro
forecasters revise their expectations of real economic activity in the
direction of the predictive content of aggregate accounting profitability
drivers and stock market returns. Although macro forecasters are fully
attuned to stock market return data, their forecasts of real GDP growth
can be improved in a statistically and economically significant way using our
indices of aggregate accounting profitability drivers. Our findings suggest
that professional macro forecasters and stock market investors do not fully
impound the predictive content of aggregate accounting profitability drivers
when forecasting real economic activity. In additional analysis, we examine the
association between stock market returns and the portion of subsequent real GDP
growth that is predictable based on our indices of aggregate accounting
profitability drivers but that is not anticipated by stock market
investors. We find that this portion is positively related to stock
market returns, suggesting that the macro predictive content of aggregate
accounting profitability drivers is relevant for stock valuation. Overall, our
study brings financial statement analysis to the forefront as an incrementally
useful tool for gauging the prospects of the real economy that should be of
interest to academics and practitioners.
·
“Accounting-Based
Downside Risk, Cost of Capital, and the Macroeconomy.”
2016 (with Luo, Ma, Wu. Vol. 21, Issue 1, pp. 1-36. DOI)
Review
of Accounting Studies
o
Takeaway:
Firm-specific earnings sensitivity to downward macro conditions
manifests in stock valuation/discount rate implications, providing an
accounting-based “answer” to vast downside risk studies that overwhelmingly
focus on stock returns (e.g., stock price crash risk; return disaster/tail
risk) and showing that earnings downside risk is an incrementally important
metric for valuation.
o
Abstract:
We hypothesize that earnings downside risk, capturing the expectation for
future downward operating performance, contains distinct information about firm
risk and varies with cost of capital in the cross section of firms. Consistent
with the validity of the earnings downside risk measure, we find that, relative
to low earnings downside risk firms, high earnings downside risk firms
experience more negative operating performance over the subsequent period, are
more sensitive to downward macroeconomic states, and are more
strongly linked to earnings attributes and other risk-related measures from
prior research. In line with our prediction, we also find that earnings
downside risk explains variation in firms’ cost of capital, and that this link
between earnings downside risk and cost of capital is incremental to several
earnings attributes, accounting and risk factor betas, return downside risk,
default risk, earnings volatility, and firm fundamentals. Overall, this study
contributes to accounting research by demonstrating the key valuation and risk
assessment roles of earnings downside risk derived from firms’ financial
statements, also shedding new light on the link between accounting and the
macroeconomy.
·
“SEC
Filings, Regulatory Deadlines, and Capital Market Consequences” 2017
(with Bartov. Vol. 31, Issue 4, pp. 109-131. DOI)
Accounting
Horizons
o
Takeaway:
Firms filing financial statements late are severely and negatively
affected, with major legal and capital market insights about how late filing is
processed in capital markets.
o
Abstract:
Timely disclosure of financial statement information is a critical requirement
for firms and well-functioning capital markets. Yet, every quarter or year, a
non-trivial number of firms are late in filing their financial statements. This
paper identifies and probes various capital market consequences for late
filings of quarterly and annual financial statements. It examines the short-
and long-window reaction to late filings, as well as how equity investors
process statements accompanying late filing announcements, such as managers
declaring intentions to file within/outside the SEC’s allowed grace periods.
This paper documents that delayed quarterly filings have distinctly different
valuation implications than delayed annual filings over the short and long run,
and that accounting problems play a unique role in signaling the seriousness of
the delay. It also shows that investors do not accept management’s
delay-related assertions at face value, and that delayed filing announcements
signal continued poor performance that is not fully reflected in stock prices
at the time the announcements are made. Overall, this paper sheds new light on
important capital market consequences of filing financial statements late.
·
“Interest
Rate Volatility, the Yield Curve, and the Macroeconomy.” 2018 (with Joslin.
Vol. 128, Issue 2, pp. 344-362. DOI)
Journal
of Financial Economics
o
Takeaway:
Interest rate volatility is modeled and shown to price bonds and bond options,
and it is identified as significantly driven by aggregating firm-level
uncertainty about accounting results.
o
Abstract:
This paper provides theory and evidence that a low-dimensional term structure
model can simultaneously price bonds and related options. It shows that a
component of volatility risk largely unrelated to the shape of the yield curve
is a determinant of expected excess returns for holding long maturity bonds. It
also finds evidence for this return relationship both in the model and directly
in the data through regression analysis. The paper also identifies a link
between corporate earnings performance and interest rate volatility, providing
a channel driving interest rate volatility. The structure of risk in the model
that gives rise to these features of volatility is distinct from that inherent
in recent models with unspanned stochastic volatility.
·
“Undisclosed
Material Inflation Risk.” 2023 (with Xie. Vol. 140, pp. 82-100. DOI)
Journal
of Monetary Economics
o
Takeaway:
Even though inflation risk is material and pervasive, it is largely undisclosed
by executives of many major U.S. public corporations. Also, securities class
action lawsuits are likely to trigger inflation risk disclosures by
inflation-exposed firms as well as that inflation shocks cause trillions in
security price damages for shareholders of inflation-exposed-nondisclosing
firms.
o
Abstract:
We identify many major U.S. corporations that are highly exposed to inflation
risk. Yet, although the SEC legally requires disclosing possible risk factors,
more than 61% of the inflation-exposed corporations do not disclose inflation
risk. However, after being sued in a securities class action lawsuit, while all
firms increase the length of their reported risk factor texts, only
inflation-exposed firms are more likely to begin disclosing inflation risk.
Simulations using calibrated parameters from our models reveal that 2%–6%
inflation shocks over the subsequent three years result in market cap damages
of $0.9 to $2.8 trillion for shareholders of inflation-exposed firms that never
disclosed this risk. The inadequate inflation risk disclosure holds after
allowing risk to be time varying, controlling for firm/industry
characteristics, and/or exploiting a quasi-natural experiment that identifies
causal effects and controls for possible unobservable factors. The evidence is
consistent with corporate managers paying inadequate attention to inflation
risk. Our framework enables identification and evaluation of stock price drop
damages, especially for firms with inadequate risk disclosures, possibly
improving disclosure practices, inflation expectations, and monetary policy
transmission.
·
“Pharmaceutical
Mergers: Do We Have the Right Cure?” 2025 (with Feldman, Schor, Sakib)
COLUMBIA
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LAW REVIEW, Forthcoming
(a top-tier academic journal in the interface
of law, science, and technology)
o
Takeaway:
Our research finds that the FTC’s current pipeline drug divestiture approach in
pharmaceutical mergers largely fails to preserve competition, with 81% of
divested drugs never reaching meaningful market share. Stronger measures—like
requiring “crown jewel” or “skin in the game” divestitures—are recommended to
make the process more effective.
o
Abstract:
Few federal agencies wield tools more powerful than the Federal Trade
Commission’s authority to review—and deny—proposed mergers between companies.
This authority is powerful for a reason: large mergers can be uniquely harmful
to the United States economy and American consumers, by reducing competition,
undercutting consumer choice, and inflating prices. The pharmaceutical industry
is particularly sensitive to merger harms, given the importance of prescription
drugs and the limited number of competitors. When pharmaceutical companies seek
to merge, the FTC often requires that one of the companies divest ownership of
certain drugs not yet on the market—so-called “pipeline” drugs. FTC evaluations
deem the pipeline divestiture program a complete success. But does it work? As
a client once said to a lawyer when asked this question, “It depends on what
you mean by ‘it’ and “work.’” In this case, the FTC has defined success by
whether the divestitures happened—rather than whether the divestitures
successfully preserved competition. Our first-of-its-kind study reveals that
pipeline divestitures have, in fact, not worked. For example, using
conservative measures, our analysis shows that 81% of divested pipeline
products fail to attain even a 1% share of their relevant markets. But all is
not lost: with a few key changes, drug divestiture can indeed achieve its
intended effects. We recommend the FTC requires either a “crown jewel
divestiture” (selling the on-market product, not the pipeline product) or a
“skin in the game divestiture,” (if pipeline product fails, company divests
on-market product).
·
“National
Accounting, Inflation, and Rising Inequality.” 2025 (with Ahn, Joslin)
Contemporary
Accounting Research, Forthcoming
o
Takeaway:
Low and high socioeconomic groups in the United States are exposed to different
inflation rates, and this manifests in a systematic disadvantaging of
low-income U.S. households. This widening inequality leads to hurting
low-income households in terms of educational attainment, credit card debt,
ability to own real estate properties for dwelling, crime rates, and health
matters. The inflation gap is also linked to firms’ profitability where,
consistent with inflation gap disadvantaging low-income households and mainly
through basic goods, inflation gap fluctuations are especially strongly tied to
firms’ profitability in the energy and consumer staples sectors.
o
Abstract:
We study how inflation heterogeneity is linked with individuals’ and firms’
outcomes from the lens of accounting research, applying accounting measurement
frameworks to the national accounting measurement of inflation. We first
examine the systematic exposure of individuals in low-income households to
higher inflation relative to those in high-income households. We show that this
“inflation gap” is linked with future rising inequality in the form of widening
gaps in (a) health, (b) education, (c) home ownership, and (d) credit card
debt, as well as in (e) a higher frequency of property crimes. We further
provide an economic mechanism connecting inflation gap with rising inequality,
empirically demonstrating the role of basic goods in reducing the ability of
individuals in the low-income group to attain the social and economic outcomes
that we study. In addition, we show a channel that connects the inflation gap
to firms’ profitability. Indeed, consistent with inflation gap disadvantaging
low-income households and mainly through basic goods, inflation gap
fluctuations are especially strongly connected to the profitability of firms
operating in the energy and consumer staples sectors. Finally, we find that
market power plays a role in this connection, where this link is even stronger
for firms with high market power.
·
“Digital
Traffic, Financial Performance, and Stock Valuation.” 2025
(with Armstrong, Zhang. Vol. X, pp. 1-32. DOI)
The
Accounting Review, Forthcoming
o
Takeaway: Digital traffic has substantial economic
consequences for, and information content about, corporate financial
performance and equity valuation.
o
Abstract:
We examine the economic implications of digital traffic on firms’ financial
performance, stock valuation, and financial surprises. Our analysis shows that
timely flows of digital traffic are contemporaneous and leading indicators of
firms’ revenue and profitability—both gross and operating. Moreover, we show
that digital traffic contains novel information about firms’ future performance
that is not entirely reflected in stock prices, analyst forecasts, or
historical (i.e., time series) financial metrics. Notably,
digital-traffic-based investment strategies are lucrative and generate
substantial abnormal returns. Importantly, we also adduce evidence that
corroborates our conjecture about the underlying economic mechanism that
explains the valuation implications of digital traffic: these are driven by
firms with consumer-oriented websites that facilitate sale transactions.
INVITED SPEAKER PRESENTATIONS
· 2021-2025: University of Washington*. University of Texas at
Dallas. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. AI Dev World 2023 (two key
presentations: in person and digital). Hong Kong University Business School,
Finance Forum 2023. Cornerstone Research. Columbia University. Final Hedge
Fund*. Hebrew University. Google/Alphabet Research Series. UC Berkeley (a few
presentations). George Washington University*. J.P. Morgan Chase Research
Seminar. Yale University. INSEAD. Saudi Arabia Government (Faisal Alibrahim, Minister
of Economy & Planning, and top finance and economics officials). Japan
Accounting Association/Tokyo Keizai University. Barak Capital Investments
· 2016-2020: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Northwestern
University. Wharton (accounting research conference). BlackRock. UC Berkeley’s
Haas. USC. LBS. Arizona State University*. MIT. IDC (summer finance
conference). UNC. U. Washington. U. Sydney. IDC (finance/accounting). Wharton
(second presentation that period). Stanford University*. UC Berkeley’s Center
for Risk Management Research. AQR*. U.S. Army Cyber Command Counter-Terrorism
Task Force. UCSD. George Washington University (conference)*. Naval Postgraduate
School. J.P. Morgan Chase Research Seminar. Hitotsubashi
University (Tokyo)*. Tokyo Keizai University*. CUHK*. HKUST*. Tel Aviv
University (finance/accounting). Google/Alphabet Research Series. U. Toronto.
CAPANA*. Tel Aviv University (international accounting conference). Carnegie
Mellon University*
· 2012-2015: Columbia University. BlackRock. UCLA. LBS. Bocconi
University. Tel Aviv University. UC Berkeley (all-faculty seminar). Review of
Accounting Studies Conference (invited discussant). UC Irvine. Tel Aviv
University. CFA Institute Invited Financial Analysts Journal Featured Author
Interview. Hebrew University*. Norwegian School of Economics*. CAPANA*. UC
Berkeley. UC Berkeley (all-faculty seminar). Penn State*. Santa Clara
University. China Securities Regulatory Commission. USC
· 2007-2011: Stanford University. New York University. USC.
Barclays Global Investors. UNC. Georgetown University. University of Toronto.
UC Berkeley. Tel Aviv University. The Ono College. California Polytechnic State
University. Alternative Asset Summit for Hedge Funds, Pension Funds, and
Institutional Investors. Columbia University. U. Miami. Rice University.
Stanford University (all-faculty seminar). U. Minnesota
· Other, presentations and/or invited/regular participation,
including multiple times: National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER)
Programs on Economic Fluctuations and Growth; Journal of Accounting and
Economics Conference. Stanford University Accounting Summer Camp. Review of
Accounting Studies Conference. Colorado Summer Accounting Research Conference.
Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance Conference. The Utah Winter
Accounting Conference. CARE Conference. Contemporary Accounting Research Conference.
Stanford GSB’s Causality in the Social Sciences Conference. University of
Minnesota’s Empirical Conference in Accounting. American Accounting Association
Annual Meetings. Midyear Meetings of the American Accounting Association’s
Financial Accounting and Reporting Section. Chinese Accounting Professors’
Association of North America Conference. AAA/Deloitte Trueblood Seminar for
Professors. New Faculty Consortium of the American Accounting Association. Deloitte&Touche/J. Michael Cook Doctoral Consortium
* denotes an invitation for a talk
HONORS AND ACHIEVEMENTS
· National:
“Award given…to published
research work which has withstood a rigorous process of screening and scrutiny
based on certain criteria, such as uniqueness and potential magnitude of
contribution to accounting education, practice and/or future accounting research,
breadth of potential interest, originality and innovative content, clarity and
organization of exposition and soundness and appropriateness of methodology.”
BEST
PAPER AWARD, of the American Accounting Association (More More)
“This annual award honors the
paper that best reflects the tradition of academic scholarship in financial
accounting and explores research that is relevant to problems facing the
accounting profession and standard-setters.”
· Berkeley:
Schwabacher Fellow. “The Executive Committee voted this honor on the
basis of ‘outstanding research, exceptional departmental service, unusual
scholarly growth, or some combination thereof.”
Barbara and Gerson Bakar
Faculty Fellow. “A most positive signal for the years to come, the
fellowship honors Haas faculty members with a record of accomplishment and a
very bright future.”
Earl F. Cheit Award for
Distinguished Excellence in Teaching & Distinguished Teaching Fellow
(awarded more than once; for teaching core MBA courses on financial accounting
and reporting). “Highest teaching award bestowed annually upon instructors
at Berkeley Haas.”
Hellman Fellow Fund Award for
Distinguished Excellence in Research. Selected across UC Berkeley as a “Most
Promising Assistant Professor.”
Club Six Member, for Teaching
Excellence in Core MBA (in several teaching years at Haas).
· International:
Favorite
MBA Professors of the Class of 2021.
Poets&Quants; Yahoo
Finance
World’s
Top 40 Under 40. Featured at: Berkeley Haas, P&Q, Fortune. Poets&Quants
· Stanford:
Jaedicke Merit Award for
Outstanding Academic Performance at Stanford’s PhD Program
Doctoral Fellowships (each
year in the PhD program)
· Other:
Evan
C. Thompson Teaching & Learning Innovation Award, for Core MBA Teaching
Excellence; Columbia University’s Research Grant (Center for International
Business Education and Research); Special Program for Outstanding Students
(Joint BA &MA, fully-funded for academic excellence); School of Economics’
Annual Research Prize; Various awards
for excellence, including full tuition scholarships and stipends for all
academic studies; Magna Cum Laude (2002)
Professional
Services
And
Memberships
Published
Books
and
Discussions
Other
Professional Experience
Website under construction…it will be
completed soon
https://www.blackdiamondresearchlabs.com
https://www.blackdiamondresearchlabs.com/about.html
https://www.blackdiamondresearchlabs.com/experts.html
https://www.blackdiamondresearchlabs.com/contact.html
https://www.blackdiamondresearchlabs.com/index.html
New Research!
http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/yaniv/newresearch.html
http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/yaniv/newresearch_inflation.html
http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/yaniv/newresearchpaper_inflation.html
http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/yaniv/newresearchpaper.html